Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Bernanke Kaput

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ka·put: Broken and useless; no longer working and effective.

I’ve always been of the opinion that charts speak louder
than words.  Here are a few of the most recent US economic reports,
which really don’t need much of an explanation or technical expertise to
decipher.  The longer they bid the market up on the belief that
QEternity and the Bernanke Put Kaput will lift the stock
market forever, the larger the disconnect between equity prices and the
underlying economic fundamentals becomes.  The larger this disconnect
gets, the more powerful the reversion to the mean will be once it
finally manifests.  Have a nice weekend.

Randy Phinney, RSOTC.com


Economic reports 11-30-12

The Ending of Twist

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From MarketWatch

“The Federal Open Market Committee Fed’s bond-purchase
programs, known as Operation Twist, expires next month. Under the
program, the Fed has been buying long-term Treasurys and selling its
holdings of shorter-dated Treasurys, effectively “twisting” the yield
curve that charts the gap in yields between different maturities.

Investors expect the Fed to continue its buying of long-term
Treasurys while letting the short-term sales expire, in effect expanding
its program known as quantitative easing, or QE, beyond large-scale
purchases of mortgage-backed securities — something to which the Fed’s
committed to doing as long as necessary.”

Below is a look at what the Twist manipulation has done as various
items – and notably, gold – have been held in a corrective grip by the
“sanitized” aspect of Twist, which does not increase the money supply. 
It is of course bald faced (in that it is very official and not just in
the realm of Tin Foil Hatters) manipulation of something that has
traditionally been a ‘free market’ indicator of systemic stress or lack
thereof.

yield spread

Here’s a compelling view by a log scale chart of gold dutifully following the yield spread.

yield curve and gold

Both charts have been used in NFTRH, where we a deal in what is, not what should be.  What is
is a barbarous relic that also acts as monetary insurance and barometer
of systemic problems towing the line with a yield curve whose structure
has been manufactured.

What happens if they terminate (or are forced to terminate by lack of
short-term bond supply) this operation in December as the currently
announced Twist phase ends?  Well then, inflation may become just a
little bit more honest.

http://www.biiwii.com

Dow Theory Musings (by Springheel Jack)

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ES broke declining resistance overnight and we may be seeing the start of a move to test the highs, very possibly to make a double or M top for the retracement that I am expecting to see. The main alternate scenario is that the retracement low is now in and we are seeing the start of a new wave up and that's possible, but I'm leaning strongly against that at the moment. 

On the SPX 60min chart the retracement from the highs so far looks like a bull flag, which is a good reason to think that we might see a test of the highs soon. If this rising channel on SPX from the June low is going to hold, then the maximum likely within that channel would be in the 1380-5 area, with the upper bollinger band in the 1482 area today. Equally if that channel is going to hold then the main retracement has not yet got going, and I have a possible target for that at the intersection of rising channel support and the May high in the 1415 area at the start of October:

(more…)

Entire QEfinity Rally Gone in the Euro

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Well, ever since dickhead the honorable Chairman Bernanke announced last Thursday that he would support his banker butt buddies with unlimited printing of money with absolutely no end date, people figured the US dollar would go to $0 and the S&P would go to 666,666.

Instead, not even a week later, the entire explosive rally fueled by the actions of this nation's greater traitor has been vanquished, as measured by the EUR/USD cross-rate. We at Slope all join in the anticipation of the ruination of this Satanic overlord.

0919-eurodick