Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Brave New World Series: 2 – Fleas and Fibonaccis

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I started writing a post talking about the 2011-13 rising wedge target and after a lot of work I have divided that into two posts that I will post on today and tomorrow.

This first post will lay out the theoretical basis for my analysis and is going to be a little dense. If you don’t much care for math and TA theory you can skip onto the next in the series which I will be posting tomorrow and see the short version with an explanation of the current setup and the two previous examples on SPX that I am treating as comparable. (more…)

Testing Serious Resistance

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I posted a SPX 5min chart on twitter yesterday shortly after the high pointing out the negative RSI divergence there, and that the high was an almost exact test of the daily middle bollinger band. I won’t use that today but you can see that chart here. On the SPX daily chart we can see that the high yesterday was a test of the daily middle bollinger band, the 50 DMA, and an approximate test of broken broadening wedge support. This is obviously a very significant confluence of resistance levels and the most obvious place to see either a retracement within a new uptrend, or possibly a rally high within a continuing downtrend. On a clear break above this area the obvious target is the daily upper bollinger band, now in the 1662 area. SPX daily chart: (more…)

Just the Fibs Ma’am

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I have to be out for a few hours before the markets open tomorrow so I’m writing this post after the Thursday close and might add a couple of comments at the bottom when I return 90 minutes or so before the market opens on Friday.

Obviously the broadening ascending wedge on SPX broke today, and as I hoped it might, it broke with an opening gap through wedge support, which is the strongest way to break a pattern trendline. That broken trendline should be good resistance on any counter-trend bounce that we might see here. SPX then tested the 1598 low, bounced a little and then broke down through it. That was also a very significant support break, as I explained in my last post. (more…)

GDX Bottom Is In

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It has been a little while since I’ve done a post here, but the returns in the model portfolio have been steadily rising.  We are now up 8.4% since February.

With gold finally waking up over the last couple of days, I thought it was high time that we checked on the how GDX was doing technically.  Specifically, I wanted to figure out what the chances were for further downside movement, or whether GDX had formed a bottom and it was time to jump in. (more…)