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To the delight of the crypto bros, Bitcoin has broken out to levels never before, surpassing the Inauguration Day peak. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it push tens of thousands of dollars higher from this point, particularly with such a supportive federal government behind it.
A friend shared this Fourth-Turning-focused interview which I really enjoyed:
I called the likely start of a strong rally on Crypto in my post on 11th April, and we have seen that rally. This has been, as I titled my post that day, a distorted mirror image of the rally on equities at the same time.
As of this morning I had not called a candidate rally high on either Crypto or equities for the move up from there as the setups didn’t look ready yet. That’s still the case on equities but there is now a high quality setup to reverse down here on Crypto for at least a strong retracement, and possibly a 2025 low retest.
I have a number of instruments I watch to warn me of possible direction changes coming on equities and Crypto is one of those, along with oil, copper, lumber and some others. I’m not assuming that equities will set up to reverse back down as well shortly but they may well. At the least there is a good case to see some consolidation on equities here. Crypto and equities do tend to be strongly correlated, but they aren’t in full sync all the time, and it may be that this move can happen without anything more than some sideways consolidation on equities.
(more…)I wrote a post on 11th April looking at a possible rally options on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I wrote a follow up post on 23rd April after Bitcoin broke up from that double top.
On Bitcoin there was a good quality double bottom that on a sustained break over 88k would look for a target in the 102-4k area. Bitcoin made a high at 105k last night so that double bottom target has been reached. So what now?
Well I was looking in that first post at the larger double top target in the 69-70k area and if there is an overall bull flag forming here then Bitcoin may reverse down from here and then hit that target as that overall bull flag forms.
(more…)Disclaimer of bias: I have viewed Bitcoin and Crypto in general as a speculation to varying degrees from day 1. NFT? Well as soon as NFT/Crypto drones started liking, following and glad-handing me due to the NFTrh (@NFTRHgt) on what was thenTwitter simply because of three letters in the abbreviated name of my service (Notes From the Rabbit Hole), my Scam-O-Meter red-lined and broke. “Meme Coins”? Well, I told you my Scam-O-Meter broke so I’ll use my B/S Detector instead to take a look at the Crypto sphere vs. gold.
Crypto and especially its speculative outer edges are logical components of the massive array of investments and speculations alike that have been exponentially boosted by the decades-long bubble in monetary and fiscal policies designed to inflate asset prices at all costs. Fed and government, working the same angle from different sides of the street.
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