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You are probably acquainted with this phrase:
“On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
Well, you may have trouble believing this, but the same holds true for my predictions. Some of them (well, most of them) take longer to play out than I hoped, but, sooner or later, they DO transpire.
I offer this morning as Exhibit A in that respect this very fresh headline:
Yep, it’s another all-green morning. It always seems to be that way these days, although as yesterday proved, that can change quite swiftly. But as we prepare ourselves emotionally, financially, and spiritually for the Powell speech (which, I betcha, is going to be a big nothing-burger with a slice of Kraft cheese inside) I wanted to say a few words about time perspective.
For very short-term traders, the overnight action is their bread and butter. With a short-term time perspective, the /ES has done great, as has just about every other asset class. As the fabled market genius and icon of sartorial splendor Jim Cramer might say, “buy, buy, buy!”
You are probably acquainted with the hedonic treadmill, or what I usually call hedonic acclimation. It asserts, quite correctly, that humans tend to become accustomed to whatever the circumstances in their life are and consider that to be “normal“, whether you’re imprisoned or living the vapid life of endless indulgence like Lauren Sanchez or Paris Hilton. Whatever you encounter day to day becomes the norm, and slight variances from that become good or bad……….but just for you.
For years now, I’ve done something which is a bit unusual, but I find oddly helpful, which is to track the positions I have closed out. In other words, when I close a position, I move it to a different part of my portfolio spreadsheet, updating its “entry” price with its “exit” price so that I can see what would have happened to that position if I had simply hung on to it.
By its nature, this is a constant source of either relief (“Phew, glad I got out!“) or regret (“Idiot! Coward! You should have hung on!“) I constantly have my eye on the rearview mirror.
