Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Mr. Wizard’s Epic Post (1 of 3)

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Preface from Tim: Our beloved Mr. Wizard composed an enormous post, long enough to be seen from space. I have broken it up into three roughly equal parts, to be published over the course of the weekend. Hearty thanks to Wiz!

Predicting the S&P

Can We Do Better Than Highly Paid Analysts?

At the end of every year, fund analysts and stock pundits fall all over themselves predicting ever higher and higher prices at where the S&P will close for the coming year. These predictions usually go something as follows: “Our analysts estimate S&P earnings for 2023 will be $240. Coupled with a conservative PE of 17.4, we believe the S&P will close 2023 at 4176.”

So we have an “estimate” for the first number, earnings, and a guess for the second number, the PE multiple. How well do these analysts do?

To be blunt: not very well.

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Thrust THIS

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Let us think back to Slope’s darkest days. That would be, oh, about 48 hours ago. Those were grim times. The bulls seemed to own the market again. Bears had been beaten across the face fairly consistently since October 13, 2022, a day I shall remember until my last breath. Sentiment on Slope was turning fiercely anti-bearish and, God forbid, even anti-Tim. And, as always, people came out from the woodwork claiming that, being better than the rest of us, they were never bearish nor bullish, Nay, nay. They simply made money, no matter what. Every single time. Thus pitying us poor saps who actually had an opinion. And, as a topper, they trotted out some retired money manager in his 70s who had created some weird-ass arithmetic hack called the Whaley Breadth Thrust which was supposed to be God’s gift to investors and was correct 100% of the time, even though it sounded like it was taken straight from the Kama Sutra. Thus, they claimed, a New Bull Market was here, and bears were about to get destroyed, as they most deservedly should be.

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When Patterns Fail

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It should go without saying that I like patterns. I see them everywhere: not just in charts, but in physical objects, human behavior, and events in my life. There’s even a term for it – apophenia – which isn’t necessarily a laudatory title. It can suggest seeing patterns where there really aren’t any.

As the proprietor of this little corner of the web, I try to do a good job showing patterns that I see, but there are certainly times when a given pattern – – even a remarkably good one – – can “go sideways“, as the expression goes. That is to say, it starts to do what it shouldn’t do, and it ruins the pattern. Here are a few examples from some long-term continuous futures contracts that I just thumbed through, and I’ve marked or highlighted the areas where things went bad.

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Tesla Fanboys In Revolt

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Of all the corners of the Internet that worshipped Elon Musk, none was more zealous than the one populated by the sebaceous young men over at the /wallstreetbets sub-reddit. They absolutely adored the guy, referring to him as “Papa Musk” and depending on him to make them rich before they reached the ripe old age of 25.

Well, just as the most strident anti-smokers are people who used to smoke but quit, likewise the young lads populating WSB absolutely despise Elon Musk, since they feel so betrayed by him. More specifically, since TSLA has lost three-quarters of its former trillion dollar market cap, countless Robinhood and E*TRADE accounts lay in tatters. If you visit WSB these days, you’ll find the vast majority of front page content is nothing more than some form of Tesla-bashing or Elon-raging. I offer to you a sampling:

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Best Posts of 2022 (6 of 6)

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Preface to All Six Segments: At the end of each year, I take hours to go through the thousands of posts from the year to gather together what I consider the very best of them. I urge you to read them, since these are the best-of-the-best, and frankly I’m surprised not only how excellent they are but how amazing the predictions turned out to be. Slope truly is the greatest undiscovered gem on the Internet, and I’m glad you’re here to make it possible. Click on any title to read the accompanying post.

  • Metadeath– Facebook gets utterly destroyed.
  • Don’t Show This to Elon– An analysis showing how vastly Elon overpaid for Twitter.
  • Pre-Sentence Memorandum– A deep dive into the sentencing of Elizabeth Holmes
  • 2022’s Big Lesson– I finally realize that hanging on to puts when the VIX is in the 30s is dumb.
  • Twelve Inch Rules– I dig deep and uncover what I consider to be actually useful trading rules
  • Max Klinger– The completely freaky Sam Brinton (who was fired a day or two after this post went up).
  • I Was There– The comedy show with Rock and Chapelle sucked……..until Elon showed up.
  • Oh, Gross…….. – If you need proof that the world is about to end, feast your eyes upon MILF Manor.