I’ll come right out and say it. I have gravely mishandled my trading in 2022, in spite of some awesome charting, and the solution to that fumbling is as simple as can be. It all comes down to this chart:
2022’s Big Lesson
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Pre-Sentence Memorandum
Tomorrow, Friday, November 18th, 2022, is literally judgement day for Elizabeth Holmes, the world-famous founder of Theranos. Although her fall from grace took vastly longer than, let’s say, Samuel Bankman-Fried’s, it was sensational enough to warrant books and movies. I can’t imagine how nervous she must be at this very moment. She lives about ten miles from where I do.
I’ve taken a glance or two at the sentencing memorandum her lawyers submitted to the judge who will decide her sentence (if any), and I wanted to share some thoughts before tomorrow when the news comes out. I am not sure precisely what time of day the news hits, but it’ll be sometime during the court’s business hours here on the west coast.
(more…)The Rest of 2022 (by Honduki)
For those with bearish proclivities, it has been a rough stint since October 13. If nothing else has been gleaned from the past 11 months, I think we can all agree that forecasting market moves based purely off what we believe the overlying macro environment is has not been consistently working. The goal here is to provide some context around these moves – especially the latest – and frame it with forward looking data that may help guide us to short term market potential.
First, let’s identify the things that we do know. Top of mind: 1) We are still in a Quantitative Tightening regime, 2) This Friday is a Monthly OpEx, 3) Since the all time high, we have tagged the downwards trendline (orange dotted line on Figure 1) acting as resistance two times – in March and August.
(more…)Don’t Show This to Elon
As everyone in the Solar System knows, the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, bought Twitter earlier this year, and none of us know how he feels about it, but I suspect he would happily Ctrl-Z the entire event if he could. It occurred to me while walking my dogs in the pouring rain this morning, what would Twitter probably be worth now if he had never sought to purchase it? Let’s go through a simple exercise.
My first goal was to find another stock which is still actively traded that, prior to the buyout, was highly correlated with Twitter. I thought it would be something like META, but in fact Spotify (SPOT) turned out to be a much better fit. Here is the percentage performance of SPOT and TWTR up to when Musk announced the buyout.
(more…)Taking Penn in Hand
I normally have an extraordinarily relaxed trading environment, with lots of computers, even more monitors, my dogs, my chai at hand, and all the comforts of home. Managing Slope and my trading in the midst of air travel (with driving, parking, luggage, airport security, lame WiFi, relatively cramped quarters) sucks out loud. I make a point of traveling first class, not because it’s particularly nice, but because it at least makes the travel crappy instead of shitty. All the same, it’s super hard to feel the rhythm of the markets while dealing with all this nonsense.
Now that I’m here in a gym at Penn State, even with all the screaming going on around me, I can calmly reflected on what I see, which is why I wanted to share a few thoughts about what took place over the week.
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