Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Weekend Thoughts

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Back in my post on Friday 16th May I was looking at the daily RSI 5 spike over 90 on SPX and noted that:

‘From here this means that SPX likely at least consolidates without going much higher for two weeks and then we could see a larger retracement but without any strong expectation of a big decline. I am wondering though about a possible backtest of the 200dma, currently in the 5760 area‘

It has been two weeks since then and we’ve seen that consolidation with a low at the backtest of the 200dma. Is there anything obviously bearish about this consolidation? Not yet, and I am still looking for likely retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ, and perhaps also on DIA and IWM, though I’m still thinking that an equities moonshot through the rest of the year seems unlikely.

In my premarket video for paying subscribers on Friday morning I was looking at an interesting setup on ES and NQ, where both had and still have decent quality double tops, and a smaller H&S had formed on both that on a break down would have a target close to the larger double top support levels.

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Holiday Spirits

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In my post a week ago on Friday 16th May I was looking at the break over 90 on the SPX daily RSI 5 and noted that history suggested that would likely be followed with a consolidation or retracement lasting for two weeks. I also suggested that an ideal retracement target would be a backtest of the 200dma that was broken hard at the start of last week.

With the decline since then culminating this morning (so far) in the backtest of the SPX 200dma at 5773, with the low today at 5667, that’s looking pretty good and this is also the obvious area to find support so this is a candidate low for this retracement.

What next? Well the obvious next step would be retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ, and ideally DIA as well, though that looks like more of a stretch. Historically this would be a very good time to see this happen as three days in each of the next three weeks lean conspicuously bullish. Even setting aside the fact that there are only four trading days next week that is a strong bullish lean, and looks like the ideal time to see these high retests.

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

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My apologies for this unusually long post. This has been a very interesting week on Crypto and there is a lot to look at. I did consider splitting this into two shorter posts but decided it is better to just do a longer post today.

In my last post on Monday 12th May I was looking at the possibility that large IHS reversal patterns might be forming on Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and that there might be a large retracement across the board on those two and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) while right shoulders were established on those IHS patterns.

Last Friday, as the modest retracement we have seen this week on equities was setting up, my working assumption was that this retracement on Crypto would happen mostly as that retracement played out on equities, as the retracement between Crypto and equity indices is historically very strong, but that didn’t deliver as I expected and while what did happen was interesting, what didn’t happen was potentially much more interesting. Let’s have a look at that.

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Ratios are Ready!

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It only took twenty years, but Slope finally has a saucy variety of put/call ratios. I discussed this last night, but now we’ve got sensible symbols and real names in there. The last tidbit we’re going to add is to put all seven of these into the Statistics panel of SlopeCharts, since even I am not going to be able to memorize these crazy-ass symbols.

you will note that the ratio peaked on, yep, the April 7th nadir