A glance at the symbol $SPX200MA (which represents the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages) looks ready to hit major resistance.
Approaching Peak Strength
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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The End of the Beginning
In my last post on Thursday 8th May I was looking at the bear flag inflection point that US equity markets were in last week. That broke up hard on the 90 day delay on most of the China tariffs over the weekend.
I was saying in that post that a break and conversion of the 200dma on SPX would open a possible retest of the all time highs, and the 200dma on SPX has now been converted with a strong gap over it on Monday and closes well above it every day this week.
Is this the end of market excitement this year? I think probably not, but it is the end of the beginning of that market excitement, and I think a retest of the SPX all time high soon is now likely.
After that I still think that the main event of the markets this year may be based around a crisis in the bond markets but elsewhere there are still important points to remember.
(more…)Canaries and Cheerleaders
I called the likely start of a strong rally on Crypto in my post on 11th April, and we have seen that rally. This has been, as I titled my post that day, a distorted mirror image of the rally on equities at the same time.
As of this morning I had not called a candidate rally high on either Crypto or equities for the move up from there as the setups didn’t look ready yet. That’s still the case on equities but there is now a high quality setup to reverse down here on Crypto for at least a strong retracement, and possibly a 2025 low retest.
I have a number of instruments I watch to warn me of possible direction changes coming on equities and Crypto is one of those, along with oil, copper, lumber and some others. I’m not assuming that equities will set up to reverse back down as well shortly but they may well. At the least there is a good case to see some consolidation on equities here. Crypto and equities do tend to be strongly correlated, but they aren’t in full sync all the time, and it may be that this move can happen without anything more than some sideways consolidation on equities.
(more…)Bitcoin Reaches Double Bottom Targets
I wrote a post on 11th April looking at a possible rally options on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I wrote a follow up post on 23rd April after Bitcoin broke up from that double top.
On Bitcoin there was a good quality double bottom that on a sustained break over 88k would look for a target in the 102-4k area. Bitcoin made a high at 105k last night so that double bottom target has been reached. So what now?
Well I was looking in that first post at the larger double top target in the 69-70k area and if there is an overall bull flag forming here then Bitcoin may reverse down from here and then hit that target as that overall bull flag forms.
(more…)Up or Down?
Hello everyone. In my last post I hinted at the fact that if GOOG could go higher, than the market could go higher. Indeed it went higher.
One thing I want to get quickly out of my chest is that I don’t think we are in a Bear Market (I may be wrong).
I think we had a crash after Trump announced its tariffs, and then, as it slowly became more and more clear than the tariffs are not really real, or at least they won’t be what they initially looked like (e.g. read the news today point at a 80% tariffs for China, not 145%, the US President said), well, I think a lot of investors started to correct the initial panic, algos started to buy, and the “Bear Market” is formally over. Can it come back again? Yes, of course, but I see more “quick shocks” rather than prolonged downtrends.
