Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Assessing Bear Flag Inflection Point

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In my post on 17th April I posted some 15min charts with arrows showing an ideal path to forming bear flag wedges on SPX, QQQ and DIA. I added one for IWM in the post after that. I’ve updated these since but left the original arrows where I first drew them for reference on the last four charts today so you can see I wasn’t that far off.

In my post on Tuesday 29th April I was saying that ideally we would see a modest decline (by recent standards) to play out some negative divergence on SPX, QQQ, ES and NQ and we saw that play out over the next few days with all the hourly and 15min sell signals I mentioned in that post reaching target. After that I was looking for another and probably last leg up within those bear flags and since then we have seen new rally highs on all four.

In my last post on Thursday 1st May I was looking for more upside with a likely high early this week, and that hasn’t quite delivered, though I think there is a good case for seeing my target area hit today or tomorrow.

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The Bouncing Stats

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Below, courtesy of the Statistics data panel in SlopeCharts, are a series of indicators that represent the percentage of stocks above their own moving averages. To my eyes, this is absolutely screaming “massive dead cat bounce” and not, as the mainstream media would have you believe, “the buying opportunity of your lifetime.”

% of stocks above their own 200-day moving average
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Mayday

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In a post on 17th April I posted some 15min charts with arrows showing an ideal path to forming bear flag wedges on SPX, QQQ and DIA. I added one for IWM in the post after that. I’ve updated these since but left the original arrows where I first drew them for reference on the last four charts today so you can see I wasn’t that far off so far.

In my last post on Tuesday I was saying that ideally we would see a modest decline (by recent standards) to play out some negative divergence on SPX, QQQ, ES and NQ and we saw that yesterday morning with all the hourly and 15min sell signals I mentioned in that post reaching target. After that I was looking for another and probably last leg up within those bear flags and since then we have seen new rally highs on all four.

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The Roads Less Travelled

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It has been a really interesting year on the markets so far for me but the winds are changing and I want to review where I think the equity markets stand and where we may see them go from here.

I was saying in a post back on December 2nd that 2025 might well be the most interesting year on the markets in a long time, and that has definitely turned out to be the case. I’ve had an amazing run this year which can’t and won’t last forever but has been a lot of fun.

In a post on 22nd January I was looking at possible new all time highs to set up big topping patterns on SPX, QQQ, DIA & IWM. On 10th February I was looking at getting those new all time highs on SPX, QQQ and DIA in the next few days. On 19th February, the day SPX made the current all time high, I showed the high quality double top targets on SPX, QQQ and DIA, and the lower quality H&S pattern on IWM. All of those patterns subsequently broke down and reached target.

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