Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

More on Metals

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Compared to the past three weeks, today feels like a crashing bore. Well, “crashing” probably isn’t the right word for a market that has been going straight up since the opening bell, predicated on the fact that Trump is supposed to………speak! So, I’m sure we’re all quite excited to hear more truthiness.

In the meanwhile, I wanted to share some charts of XME, the metals/mining ETF which I think has a very appealing risk/reward ratio as a short position.

Here it is with the RSI, which is quite elevated:

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Bitcoin & Solana Break Up

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In my last post on Friday 11th April I was looking at likely rallies coming on both Crypto and equities, and posted some charts looking at the options for that rally on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD).

I posted the contemporaneous chart below back in December and I noted on the chart then that any sharp decline on equity indices historically took Bitcoin down with it, as we have seen, and noted on 11th April that any significant rally on equities would likely take Bitcoin up with it. We’ve been seeing that since.

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Flagging Markets

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In my last post on Thursday I was projecting a possible path for US indices if we are going to see decent quality bear flags form on this rally, and initially they were going to need to go down, which they have. They overshot my target trendline options at the lows yesterday, but that’s fine, as long as they turn back up in this area or not too far below into new highs for this rally.

On the SPX chart the current low could make a very decent support trendline and, if we see a next leg up start towards a new rally high, the ideal target would be the resistance trendline currently in the 5590 area. Possible resistance on the way at declining resistance from the high, currently in the 5500 area. A 15min RSI 14 buy signal has fixed.

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Uncertain Smile

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In my posts last week on Wednesday and Friday I was looking at possible rally options from the current 2025 lows, and was looking for a rally lasting at minimum a week or two to make right shoulders on the possible H&S patterns that may be forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA here. That is proceeding slowly but I was thinking then that at minimum this rally would ideally last a week or two, and I think the odds of that look decent. The rally will be a week old tomorrow lunchtime, this is a holiday week and while there has been much talk of further tariffs coming soon, these have not yet been implemented.

I did say as well last week though that this tariff reprieve was partial, temporary and fragile, and that remains the case. If the new tariffs being trailed by the administration on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals start hitting next week then this rally may be over, and a new leg down may begin.

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Close to a New Inflection?

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This just shows you how the model is set up: chart to the left and price/time distribution graphs to the right.

This model interprets a “trend pattern” that has been detected with an algorithm and matched against other similar patterns. No visual charting criteria involved (no head&shoulders, etc.), this is just based on MATHEMATICAL algorithms, i.e. numbers and calculations, it’s all formulas.

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