Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

WEEKLY Profit Targets

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It looks like the market may try to rally already this week. If that happens, it’s quite probable that the rally will be short-lived (at least until the current black cloud persists…). So, if the rally is a Bear Market Rally, these models below may help to determine “how far” these rallies can go. These are WEEKLY models, so as a minimum the time horizon is 1 week (or multiples of that), but things are happening VERY fast at the moment, so I would not be surprised to see a 1-week rally and it may even end on Wednesday.

All this said, here are the targets to monitor, to go SHORT again and profit from the next leg down:

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Four Bear Markets and a Setup

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As I’ve been working on my post today to look at downside patterns on US equity indices I have realised that this too needs to be split into two posts, so this first TA post will just look at the historical and very compelling current setups on SPX, while the second post will also look at the current setups and targets on QQQ, DIA and IWM.

In my last post overnight, Brave New World, I was looking at the economic reasons why I think that the planned tariff war on the world due to start tomorrow may have a very serious economic impact, particularly on the US economy.

In this post I am looking at last four big bear markets / crash setups on SPX and how they played out, and looking at the setup and targets currently on SPX if we are about to see something similar play out here, as I think we well might.

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It’s A Kind Of Magic

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One of the things I enjoy most about being a technical analyst is that sometimes we can make calls that almost look like magic as they deliver, though in truth they’re obviously just a combination of math, historical analysis and good pattern recognition. I also love an uncertain market, as while anyone can look like a genius in a strongly trending market, it takes real skill to trace the likely paths ahead in uncertain markets. Whatever else Trump has done or may yet do this year, he’s at least been delivering a an interesting year for me, and I thank him for that. 🙂

Anyway, the story of this rally so far ……..

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Oil and Gas ETF

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In recent days, one particular point of frustration for me has been XOP, the oil and gas producers fund, which lurched higher on a daily basis for weeks. I am confident, however, that this rally has ceased, and I am amping up my bearish position on XOP as well as the individual stock COP.

Take a look at the relationship between the price of XOP and its trio of exponential moving averages (50/100/200). I’d say the risk/reward on a bearish trade is appealing right here.

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Sweeping Weakness

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One item I hadn’t glanced at in weeks is $SPX200MA, the measurement of what percentage of stocks are above their 200-day moving average. It’s quite a sight to see just how steady the overall breakdown has been, particularly since the mega-bounce lately is doing nothing more than clamoring back to the former support level. A U-turn should be forthcoming as the percentage of stocks continues to make new lows.