Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Halfway Through The Rally Window

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A week ago I wrote a post looking at the case for a rally on US equity indices in the 12 trading day window into April 2nd, the planned day for US tariffs to be extended to most US trade partners. That rally has delivered so far but hasn’t been as strong as I hoped, and I want to look today at the rally patterns that have been forming, and what I’m expecting to see over the rest of the rally window.

In my The Bigger Picture video yesterday I was looking at these rally patterns and saying that the initial bottoming pattern target might not all be reached as US indices appeared to be forming bear flags. I was saying that the next obvious move would be another leg up into new rally highs across the board, but that the rally might fail soon after, possibly on Tuesday or Wednesday this week.

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A Case For A Decent Rally Here

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Editor's Note: I offer this post from our friend SHJ in the interest of being fair and balanced. I, of course, would hate to see any rally, decent or otherwise!

Every so often something rare happens on equity indices, and I get to run the numbers to see what to expect when that happens, which is something I always enjoy doing. Last week there were touches and punches below the weekly 3sd lower band on the US equity indices, so I’ve been looking back to see what has happened in the past when this happened.

On the bigger picture the topping patterns on the US equity indices that I was looking at in my post on Wednesday 19th Feb have all broken down and none have yet made target, though SPX and QQQ are getting close. I’m expecting to the US indices go lower, but there is a decent case for a rally during the next couple of weeks before we reach Trump’s key date on April 2nd when he has said that his full threatened tariffs on the rest of the US trading partners are going on.

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Okay, but How Long???

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Below is a photo I just took of the eggs my hens laid over the past couple of days. It metaphorically represents the kind of relationship I’ve got with the market right now. That is to say, most people gripe about the high price of eggs and the plunging stock market. Me? Just the opposite. I’ve got more eggs than I know what to do with (my dogs get a bunch!) and I’m loving the plunging market!

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A Tale Of Two Tickers – NVDA & TSLA

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This is my first post in a while looking at individual stocks, but I used to do a lot of these, and this is the first of regular posts on these in the future. Today I want to look at the two stocks in The Magnificent Seven which currently have the best and the worst looking prospects over coming months.

The one with the best looking chart is definitely NVDA. Looking at the hourly chart I have an H&S that has broken down with a target in the 100 area and a very possible bull flag falling wedge that has been forming as it declines. I’ve drawn in a couple of possible support trendlines on that and if the bull flag continues to form it would ideally now return to flag resistance, currently in the 136.5 area but declining rapidly, and then make a last leg down into the H&S target in the 100 area. We’ll see how that goes.

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