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Here below is a synoptic view of the DAILY situation for the 3 main US indices: the RUT is the one that appears to be overbought (82% probability of DAILY reversal).
At the close today, the RUT Index was showing this scenario: 3 days up, closed at 2263.41, the time model (right hand side) shows 87% probability of reversal after 3 days up, when this particular trend pattern is encountered.
(more…)Here below is the analysis of the probability of reversal for SPX, NDX and RUT DAILY, photographed yesterday at the close:
Obviously, the RUT and the SPX/NDX are not following the same buy/sell cycles, at the moment.
(more…)All the US indices are now pretty overbought, with the NDX in particular being the most overbought (6 days up in a row).
My NDX DAILY SHORT model shows a very high probability of reversal, however probability is a statistical assessment, so we cannot exclude the scenario where the NDX closes higher, again, on Tuesday. That would be 7 days up in a row.
(more…)I was looking at CME GC Gold Futures, August 2025 expiry, 2 weeks down and reached a price area that my model considers oversold:
Apologies, in my previous post (today), I forgot to add a chart for Crude Oil LONG.
Since this scenario is panning out as I write (CL Futures Nymex expiry Aug2025 touched below 68 an hour ago), I think it may be helpful to briefly discuss where this pullback can go.
Here below is the LONG WEEKLY model for CL futures, front month (Aug25).
On the left side, the price model: you can see Crude Oil has already reached the WEEKLY OVERSOLD area! (totally contradicting what I said today, i.e. probably a small pullback).
Probability of reversal in the price support zone below 68 is around 72%, quite high.
(more…)
