After Market Probabilities

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SPX, NDX and RUT

All the US indices are now pretty overbought, with the NDX in particular being the most overbought (6 days up in a row).

My NDX DAILY SHORT model shows a very high probability of reversal, however probability is a statistical assessment, so we cannot exclude the scenario where the NDX closes higher, again, on Tuesday. That would be 7 days up in a row.

The time model on the right hand side (below) shows events in the past where this same trend pattern led to 8-day rallies, then 10 day rallies, then 12, 13, and one instance 19.

In any case: I think we will see a reversal pretty soon.

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