Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Leap Of Faith

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Back in 2011/2 I was chatting to a guy on a blog and he said that the problem with gold was that the price of gold was only what someone was prepared to pay for it. I replied that he had come very close to a huge insight into nature of markets, but had failed to grasp it at the last moment. That is because the truth is that anything is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it, and what they would be paying for it with was also only worth what someone is prepared to pay for that. To that extent markets are based on faith, rather than value, as value itself is heavily based on faith.

What does this mean? Well it means sentiment and expectation are very important, and uncertainty depresses markets, and a big shock in confidence can cause big market declines or crashes.

How is this relevant? Well there is a nice looking rally setup here at a big inflection point, but for the rally to happen markets will need to make a leap of faith.

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Possible Rally Setups On Bitcoin & Solana

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In my post on 20th February I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025. So far the big levels on Solana and Ethereum have been tested and are holding, but the Bitcoin double top has not yet played out to the target at 69k to 70k and I’m still thinking that is likely.

In my post on 28th February I was putting the case that the bull market on Crypto isn’t over until the bull market on Bitcoin is over, and so far there is little indication of that, though that could change of course if there is a hard break below the 65k to 73.8k backtest zone.

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Trump and Tariffs

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In my post on Wednesday 19th Feb I was looking at the very nice looking topping setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and somewhat less nice topping setup on IWM, and in my post yesterday I reviewed those, which have now all broken down with the exception of the big double top pattern on DIA.

I don’t discuss politics much generally but given the news bomb action we have seen in recent weeks and the rapid changes we are seeing in the economic and political structure of the world around us this year, I want to talk briefly about Trump and the tariffs that he is currently very keen on imposing on many or all of those who trade with the US.

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Turning of the Screw

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The VIX blasted from about 14 to 24 in recent days, which typically has meant the termination of fun for the bears, forcing them to wait, yet again, for weeks or even months for another chance to make money. I’m not so sure it’s going to roll that way this time, but let’s take a look at some action in a few major cash markets, accompanied by a trio of exponential moving averages (50/100/200).

The NASDAQ Composite tagged the 200-day EMA, which normally marks the end of a sell-off. It goes without saying that the resumption of the bull market following such a sell-off is not perpetual. All trends end. My spidey sense is that this one has, too.

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Cry Havoc …….

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In my post yesterday I was looking at the very nice rally setup that triggered with the rally on Friday and that looked very promising. It might have failed in any case but yesterday Trump delivered a major news bomb when he confirmed that the threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be implemented today, and that further tariffs would be implemented on China, and markets have been dropping hard since then. There is currently every reason to expect that these will be followed by further tariffs on the EU next month, so we may well be looking here at the start of a global trade war. Canada had already announced retaliatory tariffs against the US, in the event of the US imposing 25% tariffs, that will now also be implemented and there is good reason to expect that the EU will react the same way. China is already retaliating of course.

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