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Below is $SPX200MA which is the symbol representing the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. Although this is a derived number, it appears quite adept at forming its own patterns. I’m curious to see if the recent bounce to that mass of green represents a point of resistance for the market as whole.
Excerpted from the January 19 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 845
As an intro to this fundamentally bearish article, I would like to state that strictly as a technical analyst, I have a bullish view of the US stock market. There can be no other view for a TA, given the firm uptrends. But from the macro-fundamental side of things, danger signals aplenty manifested in 2024, into the new year.
(more…)In my last post on Monday I was looking at the bull and bear scenarios on the big three coins that I cover, with particular focus on the strongest setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). I was also noting the similar setup on equity indices at the same inflection point, which is important as both Crypto and equity indices have tended to be significantly correlated in the past, and there is no current sign that is different here.
Since then both Crypto and equity indices have rallied strongly and are both reached yesterday the verge of a final break up that would look for retests of many of their all-time highs.
(more…)In my last post yesterday I was looking at the big inflection points in the current rally on US equity indices that could take SPX and QQQ, and perhaps also DIA and IWM, to retests of their late 2024 all time highs.
The first inflection point in this process was at the Monday’s lows and key support, and they rallied there.
The second inflection point was after the initial rallies, and they pushed through to the upside there.
The third inflection point we reached this morning, and if we are to see this move fail hard, then this is the most likely remaining place to see that. Equally, if bulls push through this, on SPX there is a clear path to the all time high retest and that would likely be made.
(more…)
