Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Teaching Moment – Walls of Worry

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In my last post on Monday I was looking at the big inflection point that has formed over recent week on US equity indices, which were then testing key support. I was liking the positive divergence forming on the index futures and those turned into hourly buy signals and played out during the day delivering significant rallies.

This was encouraging for bulls as, first and foremost, the US indices didn’t break down hard into the bear scenario looking considerably lower and, secondly, that a path has been forming that could take US indices back into the high retests that I was talking about as the obvious targets for the bull scenario.

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As Above, So Below

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I did a post on equity indices before the open this morning talking about the inflection point here and we are looking in essence at the same inflection point on Crypto, as historically both have tended to be significantly correlated and, as you can see on the chart below, there has been no obvious sign that is changing at the moment.

On Crypto we have a clear inflection point where there could be a break either significantly lower or back towards a retest of the recent highs and that is also the case on US equity indices. Whichever way this breaks, they will most likely break in that same direction though, if that break is into high retests on both, then that may well be part of a topping process that just delivers a similar or larger downside move to the one I am looking at today, just a bit later on.

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Decision Time

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In my last post on Tuesday 7th January I was looking at the bull and bear options at the inflection point that had been forming on US indices over the previous few days. On Friday the US indices closed at the bottom of the inflection point and I was talking about that on my The Bigger Picture webinar last night, and what might be in store for us today.

Since then, at the time of writing, ES is down 45 handles, which is a clear break down. Are the US indices now resolving to the downside? Not quite yet in my view.

I was mentioning in last night’s video that there was very little positive divergence on US indices at the close on Friday, but that this could be fixed with lower lows on positive RSI divergence this morning. As I write there are now possible hourly buy signals brewing on ES, NQ, RTY, YM.

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Collapsing Strength

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I was already bored an hour into the trading day, so I started browsing around the SlopeCharts data panel and remembered I hadn’t looked at the Statistics panel in ages. how delighted I was to fire it up and see this:

The chart is of symbol $SPX200MA which is the percentage of stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages. It was trapped for AN ENTIRE YEAR (green tint) banging around, grinding around, and going nowhere. Now, at long last, it has let loose, showing how stock strength is crumbling under our feet.

Good.