The increase in the sheer daily volume of TSLA this year is remarkable. This wasn’t a one-day thing, but a persistent and substantial explosion in trading.
Volume Tells the Tale
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
To An Extreme
Here’s a simple way to see how overbought the market is: this is a chart of the percentage of stocks above their 15-day moving average. It doesn’t take a genius to see how this tends to resolve.
PREMIUM: Transform Your Opinion
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Looking For A Short Term High
The high last Friday was only three handles below the close on the daily 3sd upper band, which is a rare event, so I did what I like to do with rare events, I looked back and crunched some numbers looking at previous examples. These are the stats I posted on Monday morning.
There are eighteen previous instances since the start of 2007 where a move has either punched through the 3sd upper band or delivered a near miss within 0.0025% of it (10 points at nominal SPX level 4000). Excluding the punches, none of which were preceded by near misses, there are twelve instances. Of those twelve instances five of them delivered a second near miss within three trading days, usually on the next trading day. Of those two delivered a third near miss within four trading days.
(more…)Fed Spread Extreme
Thursday afternoon means one thing, and that’s the Fed Spread. I am probably going to resume putting these posts behind the pay wall next week, since this chart is about to get extremely interesting.
You’ll recall that, until a week ago, the Debt Ceiling was all anyone could think about. Now that it’s resolved (and the debt ceiling feels like it was about a decade ago), no one is thinking about it anymore, but I think there’s going to be a major impact on equities in the months ahead.
Walking through the three sub-components, we have the reverse repo doing nothing it hasn’t done for the past year. That is to say, it’s still floating above $2 trillion a night.
