Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Decision Time on the US Dollar

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In my last post on the US Dollar on 26th June I was looking at the very big inflection point forming here on USD that will likely ultimately resolve into a rally back into a retest of the 2022 high at 114.78, or a break down towards the 78-9 area.

Since my last post, on the monthly chart below, USD delivered a small move down to test the rising megaphone support from the 2011 low, rallied and then retested the low, slightly breaking that rising megaphone support.

What would that generally mean? Well the slight break of the rising megaphone support means that my working assumption is now that USD is in an topping process for the move up from the 2011 low, so I am looking for a topping pattern to form, and the retested low has set up a shorter term double bottom that may now deliver a strong rally.

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Possible Crypto Retracement Low

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In my post on Tuesday last week I was looking at the possibility that we might see a modest retracement (by Crypto standards) on Crypto over this week and into the end of September, during the last significantly bearish leaning period (on equities) this year.

In my premarket videos over the rest of last week I was looking at the possibility that daily RSI 5 sell signals might form on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD), and that Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETHUSD) might get another leg down within larger bull flags that might be forming from their last all time highs.

We haven’t actually been seeing much bearish action on equities during this historically weak bearish window on equities, at least until the Fed comments yesterday casting doubt on further rate cuts this year, but the pullback on Crypto has been proceeding as expected.

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A Modest Retracement on Crypto

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In my post on Tuesday last week I was looking at possibility that we might see a modest retracement on Crypto over the next few days into the end of September, during the last significantly bearish leaning period this year.

In my premarket videos over the rest of the week I was looking at the possibility that daily RSI 5 sell signals might form on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD), and that Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETHUSD) might get another leg down within larger bull flags that might be forming from their last all time highs.

Looking at Bitcoin, that next leg down may now have started, and it has retraced to test the first big support level on the way at the backtest of the May (then) all time high at 112k, and the weekly middle band just below that currently at 111,738. The overnight low at the time of writing is at 112,121.

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Decent Setup For Modest Retracement

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In my post on the morning of September 3rd, just after the sharp decline on the first trading day of this month, I was noting buy signals on all six of the hourly equity index futures charts that I follow, and those all delivered over the remainder of that week. When four or more of these fix at once on the hourly futures they generally deliver.

In my the Bigger Picture video on Sunday 7th September I was noting the strongly bullish leaning historical stats for the coming week and was suggesting a target for QQQ at a retest of the August all time high at 583.32, and we saw that with a new all time high at 587.86, seeing also new all time highs on SPX and DIA, and IWM moving closer to the IHS target at a retest of the Nov 2024 all time high at 243.04.

In my last post on Monday September 15th I was looking at the historical stats suggesting that after Tuesday this week there was a short bearish window into the end of September.

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Second Half of Sept Leans Bearish

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In my last post on the morning of September 3rd, just after the sharp decline on the first trading day of this month, I was noting buy signals on all six of the hourly equity index futures charts that I follow, and those all delivered over the remainder of that week. When four or more of these fix at once on the hourly futures they generally deliver.

In my the Bigger Picture video on Sunday 7th September I was noting the strongly bullish leaning historical stats for the coming week and was suggesting a target for QQQ at a retest of the August all time high at 583.32, and we saw that with a new all time high at 587.86, seeing also new all time highs on SPX and DIA, and IWM moving closer to the IHS target at a retest of the Nov 2024 all time high at 243.04.

I’m still expecting that all time high retest on IWM in coming weeks and there is a chance that we might see that this week, but the historical stats from tomorrow’s close through to the end of September lean strongly bearish, so I’m thinking that we will likely see at least a few days of retracement or consolidation then.

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