Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bonds Still Rallying (by Springheel Jack)
SPX was struggling yesterday, and one of the reasons for that is the ongoing rally in bonds. ZB reached my first bounce target yesterday and broke up through it. My next bounce target is broken support in the 140 area, and with ZB in the 138 area that's still some distance away. I have a decent rally channel for ZB and the next obvious target is to hit channel resistance in the 139'10 area:
Bull Patterns Break Up (by Springheel Jack)
Well the bull flag setup I was looking at yesterday morning broke up, and I'm expecting to see more upside. How much is uncertain as SPX is nearing a key resistance level in the 1440 area. That area is also the retest of the broken support trendline from March 2009 into the high last year, so it is a significant level. On a break over it the path is cleared to test the resistance levels near the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops, and they are in the 1520 and 1550 areas. There is a high probability that we will see a major pullback from a failed test of one of these three key pivot levels. As you can see from a look at the 2010 and 2011 highs , they both failed at lower pivot tests, so on a break of one level, the next one up becomes a strong target. Here's how that looks on the 15 year SPX chart:
Flagging Retracements (by Springheel Jack)
Cobra was saying at the weekend that the Dow is the leading index from a technical perspective at the moment. That may well be right. If so then the low on Friday at rising support from the October low looks particularly important, and it's obvious from the chart what will need to happen next if we are to see any more retracement this week. On a break below trendline and level support in the 13000 area the obvious next target is in the 12750 area. Without that break the main upward trend remains unbroken, and the next obvious upside target is in the 13400 area:
Bond Rally Approaching Exhaustion
We've all been closely watching ZB to make a push back to about 139 or so. It's getting there – – perhaps two or three more trading days will do the job. At the same time, the bearish ETFs such as TMV and TBT (shown below) merit watching as a good long opportunity. I still think it might be a little early, but this is shaping up nicely.
