I am just ITCHING for the chance to short the holy bejesus out of anything interest-sensitive, but I think we’re going to have to wait until later next week. Here’s one fine example, in the form of emerging market bonds:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
10-Year Treasury Yields on the Rise
The following two monthly charts show that 10-year Treasury Yields ($TNX) are on the rise.
The first chart shows that it has popped above the upper edge of a very long-term downtrend channel and is headed for near-term major resistance at 30.00.
The second one shows that price has broken above a -1 standard deviation level of a long-term downtrending regression channel.
Whether or not 30.00, if reached, would have any real negative impact on equities, may be looked at in context as to where it was at its height in 2007 (just prior to the financial crisis) and the economic conditions in play at that time, compared with current conditions (as well as the financial soundness of the major banks). (more…)
An Unusual Morning
As I keep saying, if there is one theme for me in 2018, it is “bonds are screwed.” I’ve been harping on this to my beloved PLUS subscribers for a while. Finally I think we’ve got a situation that’ll bludgeon Yellen (although, wisely, she is in the happy opportunity of fleeing her post before the proverbial SHTF). Here’s where we are at:
