Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bonds ETF in Jeopardy

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The High-Yield Corporate Bonds ETF (HYG) is in jeopardy at major resistance.

The monthly chart below shows that price is facing double resistance at the confluence of a 60% Fibonacci retracement level at 89.29 and the upper edge of a large triangle formation (both of which began forming during the 2007/08 financial crisis to the 2009 lows).

Major support sits below at the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 83.98 and the triangle apex around 83.30.

The momentum indicator has dropped below the zero level on this timeframe, hinting of more weakness to come, as has been the case, historically. (more…)

USD/Euro to Be the 4th Horseman?

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I find the previous two monthly charts of USD and Euro to be of such great interest that they could well be assigned the designation of Amigo #4. But that would screw up a perfectly good (and goofy) theme.

I could shoe horn them in as the 4th Horseman (thought I forgot about this theme, did you?) but the 4th rider was to be the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR). We’ll see on that, because the GSR has been a dysfunctional indicator for so long now.* USD & Euro may yet be the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse to help bring on the pain after the happy go lucky goofballs above finish up. (more…)

The Macro View: Amigos Ride On

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As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).

When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets.

Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well. (more…)