Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Historical & Statistical Yearly Perspective

By -

(Editor’s Note: below is a post that Retracement Levels submitted. For reasons that will become clear as you read it, I’d take issue with some of the points made, but I frankly think there is plenty enough room here for divergent opinions. I appreciate the post. – Tim)

Since the first time, I have been on this blog, in 2006, (at the time it was hosted on blogger), I have always been mesmerized by the observation of the desperate attempts that all the various market analysts, gurus and forum posters made at predicting long term trends in Bull and Bear Markets.

Most people seem to be convinced that if you analyze a very large amount of information, including all sort of possible market predictions (plus your personal bias, never forget that, and some astrology and psychology to sprinkle it all up), they will come up with a verdict about where the market is headed.

It is a truly entertaining show.

(more…)

Just Wow

By -

Well this has certainly been an impressive move. I wrote a post yesterday looking at the stats for daily and weekly 3SD (three standard deviations from 20 period MA) punches, and the last time that a weekly punch through the 3SD lower band like the one we saw on Friday was at the collapse of France before the German attack in May 1940. If we close down hard today then this decline will, in this respect, have done what the declines in 2000 (Tech crash), 1998 (Russian crisis and LCTM failure), 1997 (Asian crisis), 1994 (bonds crash), 1987 (no clarification required I hope), and others all failed to manage. You can see that post here.

That said, we are a long way from today’s close and on the four equivalent punch closes through the 3SD daily lower band, three of those went lower the next day, with AM declines of 1.8% (equiv to 1934), 2.5% (equiv to 1920) and 3.7% (equiv to 1897). All four closed up with rises ranging between 3.2% and 5%.

(more…)