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The Wilshire 5000, which is the most representative index of the entire US stock market, is currently testing the bottom of the this long-standing 2015 trading range. Based on the technical developments over the last several months+, a downside resolution in the near future appears to be the most probably outcome.
Well that was an impressive trend down day yesterday and a lot of technical damage down. I am now officially impressed, and while I had been thinking we might put in the retest high just before the holiday weekend, Greece has pulled that forward a few days and in all likelihood both the 2015 high and the retest are now in the review mirror. This would be a good time to pull together a few reference posts to show where I think we are here.
The first post is from Monday 2nd February where I confirmed that the January close on SPX met the criteria for some very bearish long term stats suggesting very strongly that the best case for SPX in 2015 would be a flat close, and the worst case a large decline. You can see that post here.
I decided to look at some very long-term index charts today, and all I’ve got to say is this: anyone buying equities right now is out of their freaking mind. It’s as simple as that. Our friends in Gainesville have been so battered the past six years, even they are firmly clasping their hat in their hands, saying we might be set for lifetime highs. Not me. Stick a fork in this rally. It’s done.
