I am preparing to leave on a five-day journey, so I’ll go ahead and deploy this for the first day of the year. I have reached out to a few of the most prolific writers that occasionally contribute to Slope, beseeching them to add content in my absence. I’ll do my best to get their stuff posted in a relatively timely manner before things return to “normal” for me on Monday, January 6th. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Stock Market Bubbles 1982–2013
Sent in from thoughtful Sloper Permabear…..
1982 – 1987
August 9, 1982 SPX 102.02
August 25, 1987 SPX 337.90
1,276 trading days, 24.4% annualized return.
October 20, 1987 SPX 216.46
39 trading days, 35.9% Correction
1987 – 2000
October 20, 1987 SPX 216.46
March 24, 2000 SPX 1553.21
3,141 trading days, 15.69% annualized return
October 10, 2002 SPX 768.63
638 trading days, 50.5% Correction
2002 – 2007
October 10, 2002 SPX 768.63
October 11, 2007 SPX 1575.83
1,259 trading days, 14.26% annualized return
March 9, 2009 SPX 666.79
352 trading days, 57.7% Correction
2009 – 2013
March 9, 2009 SPX 666.79
December 27, 2013 SPX 1844.89
1,212 trading days, 21% annualized return
The trend is your friend, and the long-term trend is for higher highs and larger corrections. In Dirty Harry’s famous words, “Do you feel lucky, today?”
Trendline Overview
Just a quick post this morning as I’m still adjusting back to UK time and my presence is required at a school Xmas concert where my sons will be performing starting at the same time as RTH today. I’m going to have a quick look today at the trendline and bollinger band backdrop to the retracement this week. (more…)
Anyone Buying This Deserves What’s Next
The Year of Living Dangerously
We live in a very complex world, and even I don’t think history repeats itself perfectly. I was curious, though, to see how the market had behaved with respect to time during the last prior run-up. Below I’ve (crudely) drawn a box representing the length of time of the 2002-2007 bull market; it spanned almost precisely five years. I’ve also (again, crudely) drawn a box for the present run-up (which in my opinion bottomed in November 2008, broadly speaking, in spite of the nominal lower on the S&P 500). So we’re kind of “due” around now. (more…)
