Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Stock Market Bubbles 1982–2013

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Sent in from thoughtful Sloper Permabear…..

1982 – 1987
August 9, 1982 SPX 102.02
August 25, 1987 SPX 337.90
1,276 trading days, 24.4% annualized return.
October 20, 1987 SPX 216.46
39 trading days, 35.9% Correction

1987 – 2000
October 20, 1987 SPX 216.46
March 24, 2000 SPX 1553.21
3,141 trading days, 15.69% annualized return
October 10, 2002 SPX 768.63
638 trading days, 50.5% Correction

2002 – 2007
October 10, 2002 SPX 768.63
October 11, 2007 SPX 1575.83
1,259 trading days, 14.26% annualized return
March 9, 2009 SPX 666.79
352 trading days, 57.7% Correction

2009 – 2013
March 9, 2009 SPX 666.79
December 27, 2013 SPX 1844.89
1,212 trading days, 21% annualized return

The trend is your friend, and the long-term trend is for higher highs and larger corrections. In Dirty Harry’s famous words, “Do you feel lucky, today?”

The Year of Living Dangerously

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We live in a very complex world, and even I don’t think history repeats itself perfectly. I was curious, though, to see how the market had behaved with respect to time during the last prior run-up. Below I’ve (crudely) drawn a box representing the length of time of the 2002-2007 bull market; it spanned almost precisely five years. I’ve also (again, crudely) drawn a box for the present run-up (which in my opinion bottomed in November 2008, broadly speaking, in spite of the nominal lower on the S&P 500). So we’re kind of “due” around now. (more…)

The Simple Truth

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In a market like this, I’m a fool. In years to come, I will be considered a prophet (I hope so, at least!). I prefer the prophet, I’ve got to tell you. It was a cool little business, and it’s a cool little role – – ex post facto, of course. Being bearish in a world where a firm like Twitter can garner a $25 billion valuation is no walk in the park. Try it sometime. (And as for the likes of Nouriel Roubini, they’re going to claim to have been bearish, but that’s a crock of crap; they turned coats long ago). (more…)