"Nothing happens on this ship that I don't know about. She speaks to me in the night….. You know what's out there? Wind and rain, and some damn big waves, reefs and rocks, sandbars, and enough fog and night to hide it all." - "White Squall" (1996)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
In Silent Testimony
I'll close today with a number of long-term charts, offered without commentary. Let us all contemplate them and the future they portend. Good night.
My Eventual Target for the Miners
I've mentioned GDX as a short hundreds of times (well, not really, but close), and as the breakdown continues, I'll remind you that my ultimate goal for this short is a long way down from here. Below shows the topping pattern and, with an eye toward the future, the ultimate price point I think $HUI will nail.
A Fresh Look at an Old Analog
I feel almost inclined to apologize for the number of times I trot out the gold bugs index analog, but – – well – – I think it's important. Week after week, this analog has held together and strengthened itself. Here's a grid chart comparing the 2005-2008 period (top) to the recent market history (bottom):
It’s My Parity, and I’ll Cry If I Want To
I believe the EUR/USD is going to approach parity within the next year. All the nonsense we've seen in Europe over the past couple of years is going to start giving way to reality, and even with Helicopter Ben's efforts to devalue the US dollar, the Euro is going to do a better job pushing its way down.
Below shows the past half-decade or so, plainly illustrating the three instances of a Euro-swoon. As long as we can crack that ascending trendline I've drawn (which is quite close at this point), we should continue our way lower. As with all things financial, it'll never move in a straight line, but over a period of months, my opinion is that we'll break all the lows seen in this chart.
I've highlighted the current pattern below. I'm most focused on how the behavior of the EUR/USD is analogous to the prior two instances, but I'd also point out the substantial head and shoulders pattern in the making.
Here's a much longer-term perspective. As you can see, my target is about $1.10 sometime in the middle of 2013. It should be an interesting ride.
