Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Analog Unfolds Gloriously

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Way back on September 7th, a Sloper by the screen name of Phantom Capital thoughtfully sent me an analog, richly detailed, as to what he believed the market would do. I published this analog on the blog, and since that time, it has performed astonishingly well.

I have been exchanging emails with Phantom, and he and I see eye-to-eye on the market's future. I submit to you my belief that:

(a) we will indeed see a "from 13 to 14" drop, irrespective of what that traitorous douchebag Bernanke says tomorrow;

(b) once we approach 1000 (let's call it 1030 or so), The Powers That Be will issue forth their final, desperate attempt to save the world. Everyone will buy into it again, lifting the market somewhat. Because, Slopers notwithstanding, people are pinheads and always think it's different this time;

(c) Around March or so next year, TPTB will have lifted the market high enough to permit Facebook to IPO. This will be the last major IPO for a long time to come. The Facebook IPO, in my opinion, will almost pinpoint the top of 2012.

(d) After that point, all holy hell will break loose, and Slope will ascend to heaven in a blaze of chart-filled glory amidst wailing and gnashing of teeth. Yea, verily so.

And that's all I've got to say about that.

1212-roadmap

Fiddling While Rome Burns (by Springheel Jack)

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I've mentioned before that I have a strong bear bias that I try to ignore as I chart shorter timeframes. Why do I have that bearish bias? A good illustration of the reason was shown in a great chart on Chart of the Day yesterday. Kyle Bass sent out a newsletter to investors and used this chart in that newsletter, while explaining that defaults on sovereign debt in much of the developed world are more or less unavoidable over the next few years, and that current policies of throwing good money after bad in order to delay the problem long enough that it might somehow disappear, are unlikely to be effective over periods of more than a few months. Here's the chart and if you click on it, the link will take you to the full writeup at Chart of the Day:

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The Crazy 88s – Part 2 (by Consistently Incredulous)

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Just a quick update on my long-view:   I’ve kept an eye on SPX’s 88 week SMA and EMA since my post in August, when we had a break below.  That break lasted until the big October run-up, but the Thanksgiving drop took it south again.

As of today, the SMA sits at 1212.76 and the EMA at 1210.30.  I would very much like to see price bump the underside of the MA before taking the “Swann” dive.

88wMAs