Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

An Interesting Spreadsheet

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In prior posts, I've mentioned the interesting comparison of the $HUI gold index between 2006-2008 and the past couple of years. Below is the grid chart showing the past behavior on top and the recent behavior on the bottom. The analog speaks for itself.

0104-hui

Instead of just eyeballing the charts, I entered the dates into a spreadsheet of the difference in time between the major turning points. The length of time is quite similar, although the present instance is just a little shorter (95.5% of the length) that the prior one.

The interesting thing is calculating what this adjusted delta yields in terms of a "start date" for a breakdown in the pattern. The date turns out to be January 21st (a Saturday, but hey, it's just an estimate).

0105-dates

Can we count on some kind of hard fall starting then? Of course not. But at least it pinpoints a day for this analog to see if some kind of breakdown does indeed occur around then.

Retracement Setup vs Holiday Apathy (by Springheel Jack)

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ES broke the support trendline from the low at the close last night and if we're going to see a retracement then this is the place. I've not marked it in but the hourly 50 SMA was support last night and an hourly close below that should confirm a retracement here. That's currently at 1257.5. There's a currently promising double-top setup with the target in the 1244 area and a potential H&S neckline, and decent support, in the 1250 area:

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Follow the Leader (by Springheel Jack)

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One thing I aways look around for in the event that trendlines aren't lining up that well on SPX is another major index that may have assumed the lead for the time being. That index for the moment is the Transports index, and I say that because the last low there was a perfect hit of the rising support trendline from the October low. On the transports index I'm seeing what looks like a 70% bullish ascending triangle, which just needs (ideally) another reversal from the upper resistance trendline to confirm it. That resistance level is now 2% above and 'll be seeing that as strong resistance this week:


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Holiday Resistance (by Springheel Jack)

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Today is the last trading day before Xmas of course, volume will be low and we might not see a lot happen. I'll take this opportunity to mix in some longer term charts to the mix today to reflect on what trend, if any, might be emerging from this long road to nowhere this year. SPX reached 1255 yesterday, just under the 1257 break-even level for the year. It looks like it might open a little higher but whatever happens in the five remaining trading days this year, this won't have been a year where equities in the US will have moved much overall.

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The Analog Unfolds Gloriously

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Way back on September 7th, a Sloper by the screen name of Phantom Capital thoughtfully sent me an analog, richly detailed, as to what he believed the market would do. I published this analog on the blog, and since that time, it has performed astonishingly well.

I have been exchanging emails with Phantom, and he and I see eye-to-eye on the market's future. I submit to you my belief that:

(a) we will indeed see a "from 13 to 14" drop, irrespective of what that traitorous douchebag Bernanke says tomorrow;

(b) once we approach 1000 (let's call it 1030 or so), The Powers That Be will issue forth their final, desperate attempt to save the world. Everyone will buy into it again, lifting the market somewhat. Because, Slopers notwithstanding, people are pinheads and always think it's different this time;

(c) Around March or so next year, TPTB will have lifted the market high enough to permit Facebook to IPO. This will be the last major IPO for a long time to come. The Facebook IPO, in my opinion, will almost pinpoint the top of 2012.

(d) After that point, all holy hell will break loose, and Slope will ascend to heaven in a blaze of chart-filled glory amidst wailing and gnashing of teeth. Yea, verily so.

And that's all I've got to say about that.

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