Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Bull Case (by Springheel Jack)

By -

I'm going to take a little time today to put the case for the new bull market from the October low. Negative divergences against equities here are very numerous, and for that reason bear market continuation looks more likely to me, but it would be a mistake to think that the bulls have no case here, and I'll be outlining what I see are the main planks of that case from a technical perspective.

In the short term support on the ES rising channel is clearly still holding, and until that breaks there's not much to see on the bear side here. The upper trendline of the channel is in the 1312 area, and ES has moved up an impressive nine points in the hour since I capped this chart to beat the last high. There might be more coming. Channel support is at 1282.5 this morning:

(more…)

An Interesting Spreadsheet

By -

In prior posts, I've mentioned the interesting comparison of the $HUI gold index between 2006-2008 and the past couple of years. Below is the grid chart showing the past behavior on top and the recent behavior on the bottom. The analog speaks for itself.

0104-hui

Instead of just eyeballing the charts, I entered the dates into a spreadsheet of the difference in time between the major turning points. The length of time is quite similar, although the present instance is just a little shorter (95.5% of the length) that the prior one.

The interesting thing is calculating what this adjusted delta yields in terms of a "start date" for a breakdown in the pattern. The date turns out to be January 21st (a Saturday, but hey, it's just an estimate).

0105-dates

Can we count on some kind of hard fall starting then? Of course not. But at least it pinpoints a day for this analog to see if some kind of breakdown does indeed occur around then.

Retracement Setup vs Holiday Apathy (by Springheel Jack)

By -

ES broke the support trendline from the low at the close last night and if we're going to see a retracement then this is the place. I've not marked it in but the hourly 50 SMA was support last night and an hourly close below that should confirm a retracement here. That's currently at 1257.5. There's a currently promising double-top setup with the target in the 1244 area and a potential H&S neckline, and decent support, in the 1250 area:

(more…)

Follow the Leader (by Springheel Jack)

By -

One thing I aways look around for in the event that trendlines aren't lining up that well on SPX is another major index that may have assumed the lead for the time being. That index for the moment is the Transports index, and I say that because the last low there was a perfect hit of the rising support trendline from the October low. On the transports index I'm seeing what looks like a 70% bullish ascending triangle, which just needs (ideally) another reversal from the upper resistance trendline to confirm it. That resistance level is now 2% above and 'll be seeing that as strong resistance this week:


(more…)

Holiday Resistance (by Springheel Jack)

By -

Today is the last trading day before Xmas of course, volume will be low and we might not see a lot happen. I'll take this opportunity to mix in some longer term charts to the mix today to reflect on what trend, if any, might be emerging from this long road to nowhere this year. SPX reached 1255 yesterday, just under the 1257 break-even level for the year. It looks like it might open a little higher but whatever happens in the five remaining trading days this year, this won't have been a year where equities in the US will have moved much overall.

(more…)