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One of the most important pairs charts I follow is $AW01//GC, which is the All World Equity Index divided by Gold futures prices. After months of waiting, the pattern finally completed, and the rally right now is accomplishing nothing more than a retracement to the bottom of the pattern. The next logical move would be a hard swoon lower, blasting below lows set earlier this month.
How long will it take? Who knows. Weeks? Months, maybe? But I have every confidence it’s coming.
On 10th November last year I wrote a post entitled Strange Days on US Treasuries. In that post I was looking at a very important inflection point that looked likely to be coming up on US Treasuries over the next few months to a year. I would suggest you read that post for the detailed analysis there of the outlook for US debt levels and interest payments as I’ll be looking at those in less detail this week.
This is currently a series of (likely) four posts reviewing the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and why the US Dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency. I published the first post in this series on the US Dollar on Monday last week and you can see that here.
After writing a lot of this review on bonds it has become clear that I can’t fit it into one post so I am dividing it into two. This post will look at historical bull and bear markets on bonds, the setup for a major increase in bond yields over coming months and years, and why that might play out rapidly rather than slowly.
(more…)I’ve been mulling over the best way to do my review of the US dollar, US treasuries, and why the US dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency, and how that might look, and I’m splitting this into three posts this week.
The first post is this one and will look at the US dollar and where it may go from here.
The second post will look at US treasuries and where they may head from here.
The third post will be looking at the US dollar’s status as the main reserve currency, US treasuries as the main reserve asset for US dollars, why that may already be changing, and what other options might replace it over the next few years.
(more…)In my last post on Tuesday I was looking at possible rally options from the current 2025 lows, and was looking for a rally lasting at minimum a week or two to make right shoulders on the possible H&S patterns that may be forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA here.
Getting a rally that lasted that long was seeming somewhat doubtful on Wednesday morning but then the highest tariffs were delayed for 90 days and a window of opportunity opened to see that rally.
How much of a reprieve was this tariff delay? Well the existing tariffs already in place before April 2 are still in force against Mexico and Canada, the 25% worldwide tariffs on steel and aluminium are in place, and the 25% worldwide tariff on cars and car parts imported into the US announced before April 2 remains as well. Of the other April 2 tariffs, all have been cut to 10% except the tariffs on China, with the US and China now in a full trade war. The White House has made it clear that a minimum tariff of 10% will now be levied on all trade partners indefinitely with rare exceptions that may be negotiated.
(more…)I have really been nailing US equity markets so far this year. I published a post on Wednesday 19th February, the day the SPX made the current all time high, looking at the high quality double top setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA, and the ok quality H&S on IWM, and all those topping patterns have now reached target with DIA, the last to reach target, hitting that on Friday.
I published a post on Monday 18th March looking at touches of the weekly 3sd lower band over the last few years and calling for a rally lasting at least a week or two based on the past history of similar setups on the weekly 3sd lower band, and we saw that too.
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