Quite a week so far, eh? Let’s catch up with a few major indexes.
The NASDAQ Composite is still hammering out what I pray to God will be a top for the ages. We’re getting there, but we are NOT there yet!
Index Look-See
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Bigger Picture on … Oil
Over the last year on my The Bigger Picture videos I’ve been watching a potentially very bullish setup form across the oil markets and I was planning a post on that this week before the expected attack on Iran. That attack happened earlier than I expected on Saturday so I’m doing that today.
Before I look at that though, I’ll go through the reason why this conflict in Iran could cause a really serious problem in world oil markets in coming weeks and perhaps months.
World oil demand is currently about 105 million barrels per day. In the absence of major supply issues there is currently a surplus of two to three million barrels per day in oil supply above that demand level which is the reason that prices have been soft and kicking around the big support area at $50 to $55 in recent months.
(more…)Ratio Check-In
As we all await to see how the actual market (not weekend guesses) responds to the Iran situation, let’s do something we haven’t done in a long while and check out some key ratio charts.
My long-held thesis that precious metals were going to massacre equities is in full swing, with the NASDAQ collapsing when denominated by the price of silver.
Weekend Index Update
Over the past week, the balance of power tilted ever-so-slightly toward the bears. Broadly speaking, the market has been range-bound for nearly half a year, and the levels of support and resistance have been clearly defined. The longer this takes, the more explosive the breakout or breakdown will be.
The NASDAQ Composite shows this range quite plainly in the tinted zone.
Interim Disinflation Within Inflation
The view is and has been disinflation first, then a return of the inflationary macro
Sometimes I feel as though I write the same public article over and over. But that is because the changes since 2020, and especially 2022, have been profound from a standpoint of market management. In NFTRH we define and employ that management.
In line with our long-standing view that the now inflationary macro would undergo its first countertrend, an interim disinflationary trend, Treasury bonds from the shortest durations on up to the longer durations are on plan.
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