Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

State of Confusion

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In my posts on 3rd June and on 11th June I was putting the case for retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ, and potentially also on DIA and IWM. In the event that equity indices went higher from there I was also giving targets for that.

In my post on Friday 20th June I laid out a possible short term retracement scenario that I said I didn’t like but was potentially on the cards, and that didn’t happen, despite the US joining the war against Iran over the weekend.

Since the weekend that modest bearish scenario has collapsed, SPX and QQQ have made new highs for June, oil futures fell an amazing $14 from high to low yesterday as fears of an extended conflict in the Middle East receded.

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Candidate Low on Crypto

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In my post on Tuesday 17th June I was looking at an inflection point on Crypto that might break down, and gave targets for that move. That setup started breaking down on Friday and two out of three of those downside target areas, on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) were reached over the weekend.

The target that has not been reached was on Solana (SOLUSD) but there is a decent case for all three making a significant low at the weekend lows.

Back in my post on Monday 12th May I was laying out a scenario where possible large large IHS patterns were forming on Solana and Ethereum and I gave the ideal right shoulder targets at 125.43 on Solana and 2135.28 on Ethereum. The weekend lows were at 126.09 and 2113.65 respectively.

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Major Index Look-See

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In many instances, the activities of the past few years of the major indexes can be described with a couple of simple facts:

  1. They have broken important ascending trendlines;
  2. Their recent massive rally has achieved nothing except to hammer out a “lower high“

Here are four examples of this, with the dashed red line anchored to the peak last week of the index (as stated, lower than the lifetime high from months earlier):

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SPX DAILY Probability Analysis

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Hello everyone — after a bit of a hiatus, I’m back. I’ve been busy behind the scenes building a few new tools that I hope you’ll find useful in your trading.

Below is a small table showcasing three markets I’m currently analyzing using a DAILY model. I also track other markets using a WEEKLY model. The choice of timeframe isn’t random — it’s driven by options expiry cycles. Since these models are designed to work hand-in-hand with options trading, I align the model’s frequency with the available expiries. For example, SPX has daily expirations, so it gets a DAILY model. Stock ABC, on the other hand, might only have weekly expiries — so it gets a WEEKLY model. Simple logic.

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