This afternoon, Chipotle (CMG) reports earnings. This is a very richly-valued company.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bipolar Market Rips Higher On False Hope
Flagging Markets
In my last post on Thursday I was projecting a possible path for US indices if we are going to see decent quality bear flags form on this rally, and initially they were going to need to go down, which they have. They overshot my target trendline options at the lows yesterday, but that’s fine, as long as they turn back up in this area or not too far below into new highs for this rally.
On the SPX chart the current low could make a very decent support trendline and, if we see a next leg up start towards a new rally high, the ideal target would be the resistance trendline currently in the 5590 area. Possible resistance on the way at declining resistance from the high, currently in the 5500 area. A 15min RSI 14 buy signal has fixed.
(more…)The Bigger Picture on US Treasuries
Part One: The Setup
On 10th November last year I wrote a post entitled Strange Days on US Treasuries. In that post I was looking at a very important inflection point that looked likely to be coming up on US Treasuries over the next few months to a year. I would suggest you read that post for the detailed analysis there of the outlook for US debt levels and interest payments as I’ll be looking at those in less detail this week.
This is currently a series of (likely) four posts reviewing the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and why the US Dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency. I published the first post in this series on the US Dollar on Monday last week and you can see that here.
After writing a lot of this review on bonds it has become clear that I can’t fit it into one post so I am dividing it into two. This post will look at historical bull and bear markets on bonds, the setup for a major increase in bond yields over coming months and years, and why that might play out rapidly rather than slowly.
(more…)Bear Call Spread on XME
Selling Premium in a High-Volatility Market: Bear Call Spread on XME
Before we dive into the details, a quick note — if you’re an options trader looking for clear, no-fluff education, I invite you to check out The Option Premium. The Option Premium is my free weekly newsletter dedicated to helping traders of all levels make smarter decisions with options. Each issue breaks down actionable strategies, market insights, volatility signals, and premium-selling setups — all through a risk-first lens. Whether you’re building your first iron condor or managing a multi-strategy options portfolio using poor man’s covered calls, you’ll find something here to add to your trading toolbox.
Volatility is back.
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