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In an era in which the notion of a “safe haven” seems, evidently, to be digital coins, the classic precious metals have been largely left in the dust. It’s nice to see that perhaps this is changing. Gold is, once again, making a real effort to escape the clutches of its resistance line, and it seems to finally have a real chance of doing so. Here are the continuous futures of /GC:
Back in August I wrote an article called Gold: The Anti-Bubble. The point being that if you want to consider an asset to be sound value in a world of ongoing plays boosted by inflationary policy, speculating upon it – especially at a time when the cyclical risk ‘on’ trades are in upside momentum mode – is illogical. As are expectations for it to perform up to par with said bubble beneficiaries (as noted previously, I define the bubble as monetary and fiscal policy and the stock market as a direct beneficiary) as long as… It’s a Bubble, and It’s Intact.
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Below is the ratio chart of the XME divided by the GDX. This chart spans decades, and as you can plainly see, it has never, ever been higher. Thus, we are either (a) entering a whole new era in which this ratio chart goes into the stratosphere or (b) it’s an intriguing pairs trade, suggesting shorting XME and going long GDX.
