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As recently as December 22nd, precious metals miners looked ready to set the world on fire. As I pointed out at the time, they were coming up against an important resistance level (dashed line below), and the fact the inverted H&S had already been spoilted did not bode well. That’s playing out right now, particularly since we’ve got an island reversal (tinted in yellow) for both the miners as well as the junior miners.
In fact, with patience it could turn out to be like shooting contrary fish in a barrel. The stock market rally – which NFTRH had anticipated a year ago on a larger basis and since October of this year for its next leg on a more compact time frame – is doing a wonderful job of holding to its seasonal pattern (see below). The rally is sucking in the holdout FOMOs who, one by one are falling for the dual pleasantries of a softening Fed and by extension, a Goldilocks-like “soft landing” scenario for the economy.
Here are a couple of metal-producing organizations which seem to have appealing risk/reward ratios as bearish positions. The first being Alcoa (symbol AA) with its giant rounded top:
From our friends at Kimble Charting:
Gold has tried multiple times to get above, and stay above, the horizontal I’ve drawn below. It doesn’t seem well-positioned to finally conquer it anytime soon.
