We are approaching a major trendline, which may offer a short-term long opportunity for both the precious metals mining ETFs.
Time to Buy the Miners?
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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There Go Commodities
The global economy is heading for the dumper. Don’t listen to Powell. Or Yellen. Or that mincing, preening, caricature Tom Lee. There’s nothing but darkness ahead, and if you want a guide that’s better than Powell’s lying hole, look at commodities. They’re falling because demand is shrinking.
Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come
Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come
While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the Treasury bond yield curve (10yr-2yr) is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro signaling (the bond market) and gives us a view into the dynamics between short and long-term yields. In the bond market, duration means a lot.
For one example, long-term bonds are much more vulnerable to inflation’s negative effects than short-term bonds. Short-term bonds also act as a liquidity haven during deflationary market crises. Long-term bonds can work quite well during disinflationary times and pay out better income than short-term bonds, but in a full out deflation scare when the very system (and its exponential debt load) comes into question insofar as you want bonds, you want short-term (in my experience 1-3 year Treasury, T-bills and Treasury Money Market). In other words, relative safety.
(more…)Miners Reverse Hard
As recently as December 22nd, precious metals miners looked ready to set the world on fire. As I pointed out at the time, they were coming up against an important resistance level (dashed line below), and the fact the inverted H&S had already been spoilted did not bode well. That’s playing out right now, particularly since we’ve got an island reversal (tinted in yellow) for both the miners as well as the junior miners.
Stock Market Melt Up Continues
As Anticipated, Gold Lurks, Changes to Come in 2024. The macro market backdrop is not likely to go the way trend following market watchers currently anticipate.
In fact, with patience it could turn out to be like shooting contrary fish in a barrel. The stock market rally – which NFTRH had anticipated a year ago on a larger basis and since October of this year for its next leg on a more compact time frame – is doing a wonderful job of holding to its seasonal pattern (see below). The rally is sucking in the holdout FOMOs who, one by one are falling for the dual pleasantries of a softening Fed and by extension, a Goldilocks-like “soft landing” scenario for the economy.
