Gold (shown below with /GC futures) is in a massive symmetric triangle pattern. It won’t be long until it resolves one way (bullish breakout) or the other (limps below the lower line and continues to suck).
Awaiting Resolution
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Gold-Centric Macro View
As the gold “community” rationalizes gold’s currently low standing…
As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold).
In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, to the biased, to the politically rigid… Also in my opinion, Twitter is a breeding ground made for brief promos, sloganeering and bias reinforcement.
(more…)Mellow Yellow
Let’s stop talking about equities for a moment and turn our attention to the one thing whose bull market I always applaud, which is GOLD. Looking at symbol GLD there is some very interesting action happening in the form of a symmetric triangle whose breakout could yield an exciting new up-leg.
Gold: a Stellar Picture
Gold’s ‘real’ price indicates a fine ‘risk vs. reward’
[edit] Since this article will be distributed to a wider viewership than nftrh.com, where regular readers know I take pains not to hype this most precious ‘value’ asset, take note that a positive risk vs. reward does not mean run out and go whole hog gold stock bull right this minute. Risk vs. reward is a condition, but not a timer. The miners, as of now, are on a seasonal bounce/rally. But with patience, the sector is setting up to distinguish itself as unique and quite bullish in 2022.
As today’s (Thursday’s) market activity shows, the bubble is still in force as US stock markets/sectors generally remain intact (for the most part, with some notable exceptions outside of the headliners, as certain table legs get kicked out). But gold is in a beautiful Cup & Handle structure, as I’ve shown repeatedly (ref. 2022: The Golden Year) since NFTRH began projecting the handle-making in the summer of 2020.
What’s more, gold’s ‘real’, commodity adjusted price has been declining since the overdone 2020 upside as well. Risk is with commodities (and stocks) and reward – with patience – is with gold and when they leverage a future macro, gold stocks.
(more…)2022: The Golden Year
The NFTRH big picture view for gold has been bullish since calling a top in mid-2020
Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.
As you can see, the ‘real’ commodity adjusted price of gold was already in a long-term bull market from 2008 and it had actually turned up in 2019 before getting put all out of whack during 2020’s deflationary fear fest. The relief shown in this indicator has been in play for as long as the public has been aware of the inflation created by the Fed and the ‘inflation trades’ associated with it.
Good news for gold bugs? Risk is about a million times lower now than it was in the summer of 2020 as the ratio comes back on trend.
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