Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Sixty-Two Fifty-Eight

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It’s quite evident that no amount of “bad” news is going to sink this market. This weekend’s big bombshell about 30% tariffs gave us a bit of red at the open, but an important change has taken place: the 6258 level on the /ES (which, for seven months held the record as the LIFETIME high) was conquered last Wednesday (blue oval) which altered the line from resistance (red arrows) to, now, support (green arrows). Until this line is definitely broken to the downside, the bulls are in total control.

The Bigger Picture on the USD

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This is my first public post on the US Dollar possibly since 2012, so it will be lengthier than normal as it will also act as a reference post that I can refer back to every time I do an update on USD here in the future.

I’ve always really enjoyed doing the long term charts on the US Dollar. Longer term patterns can take decades to form, with the falling wedge that broke up in 2014 breaking a wedge resistance trendline coming from a high in 1985.

Even the shorter term patterns within these larger patterns can take many years to form. On the monthly chart below I was noting in April 2012 that the rising megaphone that formed in the 90’s took six years to form, and the current rising megaphone on USD has been forming since the big low in 2008, which was the lowest low going back as far as my data extends to the dying days of the gold standard in 1970.

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State of Confusion

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In my posts on 3rd June and on 11th June I was putting the case for retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ, and potentially also on DIA and IWM. In the event that equity indices went higher from there I was also giving targets for that.

In my post on Friday 20th June I laid out a possible short term retracement scenario that I said I didn’t like but was potentially on the cards, and that didn’t happen, despite the US joining the war against Iran over the weekend.

Since the weekend that modest bearish scenario has collapsed, SPX and QQQ have made new highs for June, oil futures fell an amazing $14 from high to low yesterday as fears of an extended conflict in the Middle East receded.

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