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This morning is relatively calm compared to twenty-four hours ago. The big event yesterday was the plunge in crude oil prices whose drop was slightly augmented on the news of an Israel/Iran ceasefire (which, evidently, didn’t even make it through one night). As of crude is down again about another 3%, as it tries to find stability in the mid-60s (HALF the amount the JP Morgan ninnies were screeching about just a few days ago).
In my post on Tuesday 17th June I was looking at an inflection point on Crypto that might break down, and gave targets for that move. That setup started breaking down on Friday and two out of three of those downside target areas, on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) were reached over the weekend.
The target that has not been reached was on Solana (SOLUSD) but there is a decent case for all three making a significant low at the weekend lows.
Back in my post on Monday 12th May I was laying out a scenario where possible large large IHS patterns were forming on Solana and Ethereum and I gave the ideal right shoulder targets at 125.43 on Solana and 2135.28 on Ethereum. The weekend lows were at 126.09 and 2113.65 respectively.
(more…)In my last post on Monday 9th June I was looking at the bull setup on Crypto and that was looking very promising, and still looks promising, but I did note that Solana still needed to break back over the 50dma daily middle band and the daily middle band and convert them to support to open the upside.
That didn’t happen, with a closing break over the middle band that rejected the next day. From there Solana made a slightly lower low in the 140-3 support area. Solana then retested the daily middle band again yesterday, and so far is failing there again.
The short term bull case depends on all of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) , Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) converting and holding their daily middle bands as support and, at the time of writing, all are currently below their respective middle bands.
(more…)What has happened with the /RTY over the past fifty hours has been extraordinary. On Wednesday, based on the obviously fake government data showing inflation is gone (check your grocery store to verify this), equities absolutely exploded higher, with small caps leading the way. I figured it was game over, man.
Since yesterday morning, a fascinating transmogrification has taken place with the small caps, as represented by the /RTY futures. I am a bit obsessed with this, not only because I consider the $RUT to be the “last man standing” in bear-land, but also because I happen to own a whole bunch of August $212 puts on IWM. Here’s the /RTY since yesterday morning:
