Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Technical Damage & Options from Here

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It is the first day of the month today, and I’ve just used daily charts in the charts posted below, as these have all the new monthly pivots marked on them. I’ll also be posting the full list including all the futures I chart at my Substack at the weekend with all the new weekly pivots as well.

This is also really the first post of two. Today I’ll be looking at possible patterns forming and resistance levels, and on Monday morning I’ll be looking in detail at the possible topping patterns forming on the US equity indices in case we are going to be seeing significant further downside.

I’m still somewhat doubtful about seeing that. November is one of the most historically bullish months of the year and based on the daily closes in the last 68 years there are just five trading days in November that have closed green less than 50% of the time, and those five are all slightly north of 49%.

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Crumbling Trendlines

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Apple reports its earnings tonight, and that makes me a bit sad. The reason is that Apple’s report marks the end of the really good part of any earnings cycle, and it’ll be back to just obsessing over the Fed again instead of, ya know, actual corporate data. In the waning hours of this last earnings season of 2024, let’s enjoy it while we can.

The big ones last night were MSFT and META, and they’re both sinking, which has led to a really cool first-time event: the breach of the August 5th trendline on the /NQ futures. If AAPL sucks the big one tonight (thanks, in part, to the absolute wreck of their Vision Pro product), it could really start pushing things cleanly below this medium-term support level.

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Inflection Point Here On Crypto

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I’ve been looking at the overall bull flag setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for months now, and that has finally broken up and almost delivered a full retest of the all time high at 73,802.641 yesterday, though it fell just short.

My lean is that Bitcoin makes a new all time high soon and continues higher, but there is an alternative scenario, and we could see a hard reversal here instead.

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Chop Chop

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Equity indices have been chopping around in recent days, and the action seems to be getting less interesting by the day. Overall this looks like a bullish consolidation, with SPY, QQQ holding above their daily middle bands, IWM trying to break back over the daily middle band, and only DIA holding below the middle band there.

There is a lot of talk about a possible larger decline brewing, and with Vix in the 18 area, and a lot of uncertainty about the presidential election, currently too close to call, as well as a couple of ongoing wars, there is certainly enough potential news around that could help a decent retracement along.

The problem is that the setup for a large decline here is currently thin, but it could improve. The current move looks like a bullish consolidation but if that delivers and we see another move up, there are some significant levels that could be hit to improve a topping setup here. In part because there really isn’t much going on today on the equity markets, I’m going to have a quick look at that today.

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