Apple reports its earnings tonight, and that makes me a bit sad. The reason is that Apple’s report marks the end of the really good part of any earnings cycle, and it’ll be back to just obsessing over the Fed again instead of, ya know, actual corporate data. In the waning hours of this last earnings season of 2024, let’s enjoy it while we can.
The big ones last night were MSFT and META, and they’re both sinking, which has led to a really cool first-time event: the breach of the August 5th trendline on the /NQ futures. If AAPL sucks the big one tonight (thanks, in part, to the absolute wreck of their Vision Pro product), it could really start pushing things cleanly below this medium-term support level.
The /ES “breach” has already happened, and it has also provided some follow-through. Pre-market, the /ES and /NQ are both down about two-thirds of a point, and the next goal for the /ES would be a failure of its right triangle top, which I’ve highlighted with an oval.
The permabull site Zerohedge is absolutely gushing with its traditional themes: (a) Trump worship (b) equity worship (c) Goldman Sachs worship.
The most perma of the permabulls over there, Market Ear, did their daily things-are-going-straight-up schtick, laying out the argument for an enormous Trump-inspired rally.
I would offer a couple of thoughts on this possibility which, yes, is a possibility.
First off, although my gut feeling is that Trump is going to win handily on Tuesday, let’s keep in mind that reality can sometimes conflict with the polls, as it did with the polls from 538 below. The lead was universal, substantial, and literally hours before the actual election. Hillary had it in the bag, one would think. She didn’t.
I’ll offer another idea that no one, and I mean, no one but me is loony enough to suggest: that Trump DOES win and, lo and behold, the market gets NUKED. It is a truism that the market loves to do the thing that people expect the least. A complete jaw-dropper would be that part one of the established narrative takes place (Trump victory) but part two is completely turned on its head.
These are exciting times!
