Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The semiconductor stalwart Intel (INTC) has had an amazing increase in price since last August, more than tripling in price. I would like to humbly point out, however, that the price ascent is doing a beautiful tag of the broken trendline, much like it did in December 2023………..preceding a long slog lower!
In my post on Tuesday 31st March I was saying that the likely best thing that could happen in the Iran War was that the US declares victory and that the war has ended regardless of any input from Iran. This would avoid further escalation and the major economic shock to the world economy that would likely result from longer term disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and likely also the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.
In my post on Wednesday 8th April after Trump declared a ceasefire and accepted talks on the basis of Iran’s ten point plan I posted charts showing bottoming patterns on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM that had broken up and those all made their targets last week, with new all time highs on SPX, QQQ and IWM on the back of a ceasefire in Lebanon and numerous statements last week suggesting that a peace deal was close.
(more…)Indefatigable devil that I am, I have been scanning the ETFs for any interesting short opportunities as these nosebleed levels. Looking at the domestic ETFs, I found precisely {checks notes} dick-all.
However, the Chinese ETF symbol FXI looks worthwhile, given the right triangle top that remains quite fully intact. I have shorted this just now with a stop-loss at 38.15. Beneath this chart is a longer-term one as a line chart, to eliminate the gap noise.
In my last post on Wednesday last week I was looking at how far the current rally on equities might get, and at the prospects that peace negotiations with Iran might deliver something positive.
I was skeptical about the prospects for a negotiated peace, and the talks in Islamabad on Saturday were abandoned after a day, as there was never really anything to talk about. The ten points that the US had accepted as a basis for negotiation were maximalist demands from Iran that would in effect have been a humiliating surrender by the US, and the alternative proposals from the US team on Saturday were maximalist demands that asked in effect for a humiliating surrender by Iran. The talks never had any realistic chance of success or even progress on this basis.
(more…)In my last post on Monday I gave 10% odds that a deal with Iran was reached by the time that Trump’s deadline expired yesterday evening, and no deal was reached, but Trump nonetheless said that the Iran’s existing ten point point proposal to end the war was a sufficient basis to start to negotiate a deal over the next two weeks, during which time there would be a ceasefire. US equity markets have rallied and oil prices have dropped hard on that news.
Iran’s ten point plan is as follows:
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