Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Where was Monday’s Volume?

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I happened to be off the radar on Friday, with no account access.  That’s probably for the best, as I most likely would’ve broken my own rules, threw my spine out the window, and covered my XRT position.  But, as luck would have it, I was unable to wuss-out, and was around to ride the drop today.

So I think I recall seeing a couple posts today talking about the light volume… backed by IBD’s article header: U.S. Stocks Fall Hard In Soft Volume.  So where was the volume today?  Looks like (some of) it was in XRT- an 86% volume increase above the 15 day average, on a -2.5% down-day:

Rtx1

Note that this presently looks like nothing more than the aforementioned short term hop- to kiss the underside of the cloud- only to drop away.

Both the MACD and RSI continue to look anemic:

Rtx3

Rtx2

I think the pattern remains lame, so unless I become pithed for some reason, I’m sticking with it.  As I said before, I'm not in deep, but hope to be on a break below $34.50.

…and no sooner do I post this than I see this Barron's post: Retail Stocks Headed for a Markdown

It’s Raining Retail

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My favorite current short is XRT.  I'm not in deep, but hope to be soon.

Fundamentally, we all know the consumer is dead or
dying.  I have historically liked XRT
over RTH as I prefer not to have almost 50% of an ETF in 4 names (WMT, HD, TGT,
LOW).  In my opinion, the whole “Wal-Mart
destination” play in 08 kept RTH afloat longer than it should have been.

Retail should have been taken out behind the woodshed by
now, but for the mysteries of the market (see also QE, HFT, and who knows what else),
had actually climbed to a new high this past spring.  I made a decent chunk of change when the
rubber band had stretched that far north, covered relatively quickly, and have
been watching it ever since.  As of
today, it finished bouncing off the underside of the cloud (on declining volume):

 
XRT1
 

It appears to be breaking down:

 
XRT2
 

The MAs appear weak; with the 50 looking to be on a
collision course with the 200 soon:

 
XRT3
 

Short term hops aside, I see initial support at about $34.50
(given the timeframe, this could
coincide with the rising 400dMA).  If
that breaks, I’ll be doubling down for the ride to the high $20s.