Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The GME Canary (by XerxesTraderGF)

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I’ll start off by stating that I am not trading GME. That is to say, I am not placing trades on it directly, but I am certainly watching it intently throughout the rest of the year. My reason is simple. Of all things a trader would want is a window into the mindset of their opponent (the market). And the two biggest emotions which drive the market in either direction is Hope and Fear.

In Bull markets, I was trained to watch price action and a handful of indicators for entries/exits, potential reversals etc. But I was also taught to look at the market leaders, which for the past few years had been FAANG. When looking for big moves in the broader market, one could usually look to the leaders first to see how strong they were. Big strong moves by markets leaders usually preceded and led the market on big strong days. This was all open to interpretation and sounds a bit obvious, but as you get more experienced you start to look for tells in the market versus noise .

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Energy Ease-Out

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A bit of a portfolio update:

  • I’ve eased out of most of my energy positions because, as the chart below illustrates, the XOP is battered down pretty hard right now. Every one threw off terrific profits. so thank you!
  • I have retained only two energy shorts: COP and CPE – – not because they seem particularly resistant to a bounce. But I don’t want ZERO energy, and these suckers have many, many months left on them, so I’m keeping ’em. And anyway, they’re showing +70% gains, and would that be any way to treat a friend?
  • My cash is up to 30% at this point, as I remain cautious in the face of bullish shenanigans.

Completely Repulsive

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Good Lord, people. What a bunch of limp-wristed, antique-shopping, pronoun-swapping, hair-dressing ninnies you are. All you running around, screeching, wringing your hands, and talking nonsense like QQQ going to 320. Good GOD. Embarrassing. Why not hang out on the /stocks board in reddit with that kind of nonsense? Or maybe sign up for the French infantry?

In any case, the Fibonaccis asked the bulls to stand, legs astride, and kicked them directly into the nuts.

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Portfolio Update

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Well, here’s my whirlwind update on what’s happening:

  • My anticipation of a bounce was obviously correct. The real question, as I posited in the last post, is whether it’s going to be a quick relief pop or a sustained, multi-week bear-killer.
  • Because I’m a complete wimp when it comes to bullishness, I took profits on my August DIA calls and my large long DIA position. I am “pure bear” again.
  • Having said that, I would hasten to add that I am a VERY CONSERVATIVE bear right now, with a nearly-unprecedented cash level of 60%. In other words, any push higher in the market will be met with only 40% of my typical whining and complaining.
  • My 2022 profit stands at 63%, and I believe right down to my marrow that the best opportunities for this bear market are still in front of us.

Boring Beyond Belief

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Well, it was a fairly frantic first hour, but I’ve got myself repositioned way, way, way more conservatively.

  • Down to only 20 bearish positions with average expiration 140 days in the future (!!!) This is 50% of my entire portfolio;
  • One long position – IWM August $160 calls; this is 10% of my portfolio;
  • Cash – 40% (!!!!!!!!!!) of my portfolio

So, Powell, you turd-sucking scumbag, do your worst. I’m ready for this base to break out.