Market’s Up, VIX Is Down, Risks Abound
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
ROKU Investors Get Monkey-Hammered
Defensive Posture
Feh. I guess this week is going to end on kind of a sucky note. We’re only an hour into the trading day, and the /ES has zipped 130 points higher from twenty-four hours ago. I’m at a 20% cash balance and have placed myself in a more defensive posture (the most important element of which is that the average expiration of my put options is a full 155 days out).
The GME Canary (by XerxesTraderGF)
I’ll start off by stating that I am not trading GME. That is to say, I am not placing trades on it directly, but I am certainly watching it intently throughout the rest of the year. My reason is simple. Of all things a trader would want is a window into the mindset of their opponent (the market). And the two biggest emotions which drive the market in either direction is Hope and Fear.
In Bull markets, I was trained to watch price action and a handful of indicators for entries/exits, potential reversals etc. But I was also taught to look at the market leaders, which for the past few years had been FAANG. When looking for big moves in the broader market, one could usually look to the leaders first to see how strong they were. Big strong moves by markets leaders usually preceded and led the market on big strong days. This was all open to interpretation and sounds a bit obvious, but as you get more experienced you start to look for tells in the market versus noise .
(more…)Energy Ease-Out
A bit of a portfolio update:
- I’ve eased out of most of my energy positions because, as the chart below illustrates, the XOP is battered down pretty hard right now. Every one threw off terrific profits. so thank you!
- I have retained only two energy shorts: COP and CPE – – not because they seem particularly resistant to a bounce. But I don’t want ZERO energy, and these suckers have many, many months left on them, so I’m keeping ’em. And anyway, they’re showing +70% gains, and would that be any way to treat a friend?
- My cash is up to 30% at this point, as I remain cautious in the face of bullish shenanigans.
