Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Complacency to Fear & Back

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From last evening’s post regarding the measurement of complacency or fear in the markets by using the Equity Put/Call Ratio, I stumbled upon a way of timing when those transitions are underway.

It all started as I was comparing the large negative divergence in the SPX:VIX ratio to the large one I recall from 2007. As I began marking it up, a light bulb went off as I realized that ALL of the major Equity Put/Call reversals had a concurrent divergence on the SPX:VIX chart. I will plot them above each other for easier comparison.

Equity Put Call
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GEX ATH GTFO

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Today (Oct 13th), the GEX had its highest reading EVER. I’d like to play with the data and see if I can adjust it for volatility because it seems that the moves have become more and more wild over the past couple of years (ever since Volmageddon). Anyways, back to the topic at hand. Here is today’s reading (click for the zoom in, it’s HUGE). Also, note what usually takes place within a month or so afterwards on SPX (green).

GEX all
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Healthy as a Horse

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It’s clear that there’s only one thing whose health matters in this market: Powell’s Printer. And it’s doing just fine, as you can clearly see, since even the news about the most powerful man in the world being afflicted with the most famous disease in the world has, after a few hours, ZERO effect.

rtyup
The /RTY futures, having undone the entirety of the Covid plunge

I have developed a healthy distrust of this so-called market; instead of adding to my shorts, I actually closed some, taking my position count from 48 to 43, with a new commitment level of 118%.

By the way, thanks for all the nice words about the iPhone app. If you don’t have it yet, please get it here.