Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Volatility on SPX:VIX Ratio Pair at Critical Level

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I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of August 15th. I mentioned that failure to hold above the 150.00 level would likely see a prior gap up filled, while a break and hold below the 110.00 level would likely see a larger-scale correction begin in equities.

Since that date, price on this ratio finally fell below 150.00 on September 22nd (after re-testing that level and rallying on a dead-cat bounce), as shown on the 20-Year Daily chart below, and closed today (Thursday) just above the 100.00 level (filling the gap in the process). This increase in volatility is not surprising after this ratio pair put in a massive outside bearish engulfing candle on the Monthly timeframe, as I had noted in my post of July 31st. (more…)

The Moment of Truth

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First, a bit of shameless commerce – – for those of you potentially interested in joining Slope Plus, remember that this month I’m running a special (the first I’ve had in about half a year) in which you can use the service for free for a month. Just enter the coupon code trickortreat on the Subscription page, and voila, a virtual $29.95 is in your hands!

Now, on to my post………

Back on August 30, I did a post called Past Fear, Present Fear which, it seems, turned out to be really, really, really prescient. I urge you to give the post a glance, but in short, it drew a powerful parallel between the volatility leading up to the financial crisis and the volatility we were witnessing through this summer………. (more…)

Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs

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Warning… Condescension ensues… NFTRH 307’s opening segment, dated 9.7.14:

From a post on the HUI at the site last week:

“There are worse things that could happen than filling a gap and scattering the wrong kind of gold bugs back out. Then it would be up to the longer-term charts to do the heavy lifting if the daily does fulfill this downside potential.”

The gap was filled, the top end of the anticipated support zone was reached and indeed, the wrong [i.e. momentum players] kind of gold bugs are scattering back out. The hard sell down on Thursday was very likely due in large part to the selling by traders with a fetish about gold as a geopolitical or terror hedge. (more…)