Raging and Listless

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Greetings from rainy North Carolina. I’ll probably only say it a few hundred more times but expect much less Tim than you are accustomed to having until Monday morning. I’m exceptionally occupied, but I’ll try my best to do a post or three each day here on good old Slope.

Pre-market, the equity futures are all green (of course) but only by modest amounts. The /YM, shown here, has just been ambling along listlessly, digesting the eye-watering valuations the market has attained.

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Crisis? What Crisis?

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In my post on 23rd April on my The Bigger Picture substack I was looking at why in my view the Iran War was, and is, largely irrelevant in the context of the economic shock being created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait has now been closed for almost ten weeks and seems very likely to be closed for at least another three weeks. I’ll be writing a follow up post tomorrow about oil, and the oil shock that I’m expecting to become very important when the oil and equity markets come out of their current wishful thinking daze in one to three weeks. If you’d like to see that, it will be published on my The Bigger Picture substack and at Slope of Hope.

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