Greetings from rainy North Carolina. I’ll probably only say it a few hundred more times but expect much less Tim than you are accustomed to having until Monday morning. I’m exceptionally occupied, but I’ll try my best to do a post or three each day here on good old Slope.
Pre-market, the equity futures are all green (of course) but only by modest amounts. The /YM, shown here, has just been ambling along listlessly, digesting the eye-watering valuations the market has attained.
The one and only market sinking is crude oil, since the entire Iran affair appears to be ancient history. It’s interesting what a tidal wave of World War III type videos came out during March and April, and they were all dead wrong. This entire episode turned out to be not just a non-event but, paradoxically, the catalyst for a raging new leg of this 17 year old bull market.
As for Bitcoin, terribly sorry, but I can’t help myself. The chart is just too compelling, so I once again shorted IBIT yesterday in size. (I would hasten to add that /BTC futures are down a few hundred bucks, so, yeah, it’s a start). The relationship with that red line below is interesting, since it provided strong support (left arrow) then failed (circle) and now appears to be acting as resistance (right arrow). Hope springs eternal in the bearish breast.
Honestly, though, the S&P 500 has become a meme stock. Just look at this thing: a picture-perfect rounded top, a brief break, a retracement, and then……………madness.
My commitment level remains thin. I have absolutely no big ETF positions (with the exception of IBIT, mentioned already) and a smattering of carefully chosen small shorts. Sooner or later, this lunacy will terminate (maybe after the SpaceX IPO), but for now, I am gritting my teeth and bearing down.
