Greetings from world-famous Denver International Airport. Some of you may think that I travel a lot. I don't. I just complain a lot about it when I do. Today was a fine example of why I hate traveling – – it takes me away from the markets! Incredibly, with just a few "quickie" opportunities to check into the market, I had a dynamite day, even making money (both directions) with some large Russell put (and then call) positions.

Lately I have been very correct about:

• Fall in ag-related prices
• Fall in oil-related prices

….and I've been very incorrect about…….

• Bottom being in on investment banks
• Equity markets being in position for a sustained bounce

Luckily, for those last two, (1) I haven't touched an investment bank, either long or short, for weeks; (2) I've been able to play the long and short side of equity index volatility very profitably.

This morning, I had 1000 shares of DIA, and when the Dow was up 100, I had that funny feeling that there wasn't going to be any more upside short term. I sold out (for a whopping $600 profit, which is pretty puny for a $112,000 position!) and bought Russell puts (since I was amazed to see Russell actually slightly down, in spite of the Dow being up 100 at the time). Well, the Dow lost all that, and 150 more, and those Russell puts turned out fabulous. Later in the day, I went long Russell calls and closed those out for a profit as well. I am – – as is the case these days – – in no index positions at all. I am simply uncomfortable at these levels holding big positions overnight.

$XBD seems to simply have no bottom. I have given up guessing. It'll probably take another major brokerage going belly-up.

DIA seems to be hitting at least a little support on its Fibonacci, but it's very, very weak. If we get a multi-week bounce, I'd expect a lot of strength on this one.

The head and shoulders formation I've been watching for weeks on $UTIL continues to very slow shape up.

OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.

I am blown away how fast the Russell has fallen. Clearly here we have huge support from mid-January and mid-march. If we break mid-March, look out below.

Adding credence to the idea of support is the $OEX touch of the retracement as well.

S&P 500 broke its March lows (just look how far it has traveled since mid-May!!!). This has been a far more rapid bear swing than we've enjoyed in a long time.

There's a lot of high-quality chatter going on in the comments section, and some of it is centered around DUG, which broke above resistance today on very, very strong volume.

Now a few favorite short positions……CERN is falling away from resistance……

XEC is one of many energy shorts that has great potential and has already paid off.

If MasterCard breaks that major trendline at $240, it's an easy trip to $220, which is the measured target.

Add PXD to the energy list….

I'm crazy about SOHU. I own a ton of these puts.

AZO is move away from the retracement it made toward its diamond pattern.

BHI has taken a while to ferment, but I think it's finally there.

COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.

DECK has been weirdly strong, but I've got hope for this one.

And EOG is doing fantastically; very little support anywhere in sight!

I'm getting on a plane now. I will not have another post until VERY LATE Tuesday night. See you then!

OK, it is very, very difficult to trade by swerving off the road, jumping into a Starbucks, and getting a WiFi for a little while. But that's the way of the world at the moment.

I am closing my Russelll 2000 puts (acquired earlier this morning) for a marvelous 20% profit. The Fibonacci "touch", shown below, is enough reason for me to thank the market for its profits. I am slack-jawed that the market is still falling today, but you can't argue with the price quotes.

Well, that didn't last long. I sold my 1,000 DIA when the Dow was up 100 earlier today, and I bought a bunch of Russell puts (whose weakness still amazes me). So I'm pure bear again.

Unfortunately, I have limited access to my laptop today, so I'm probably going to forego a ton of potential day trading profits simply by being tied up. Grumble.

Hang on, tight, everyone! This is turning out to be quite a ride.

I am writing this entry on Saturday, July 5th during a very pleasant three-day weekend in Colorado. I do not think I will have an opportunity to do another post until Monday night.

Over the past couple of days, I have spent a lot of time (as you might imagine) thinking about the markets and looking at the charts. The "contrarian-contrarian" viewpoint seems to be going something like this: "Since everything is so bearish (including this weeks' cover story of Barron's), then the obvious contrarian conclusion is that the market is going to bounce. But since so many contarians are so loudly declaring that we're a bounce is inevitable at this point, then we're bound to keep falling, because the market always like to surprise the most people possible."

That kind of thinking – – that is, trying to outguess what everyone on the planet is thinking – – can make you crazy. I prefer to stick to the charts. What the charts are telling me is that we're in for a bounce (and not the kind that lasts for just a few hours). I don't intend to get overly aggressive about this bounce. But I will say that (a) I took a huge portion of my positions either wholly or partly off the table on Friday, including all my index puts; (b) I went long a number of bullish ETF funds (the double-correlated kind); (c) I intend to make select long equity purchases on Monday, barring a surprise.

One index chart that seems terribly ripe for at least a few days of an upturn is the $XBD:

Looking at the $INDU, its price has the Bollinger Band distorted very  badly, and I think a list of about 700 points higher from here would bring a lot of needed relief to the market (and a new opportunity for the author and readers of this blog to reload).

The Transports, too, look ready to get back to about 5,100; a drop in crude prices, which I strongly suspect will happen, will provide an impetus for such a climb.

My target for the retracement on the $MSH is about $580.

As for OIH, this fell nicely on Wednesday and Thursday, and I can easily see this getting to below $200 this week.

To see just how badly banking is battered (there's your alliteration for the day…….), look at this chart going back a dozen years. We are, at these levels, at depths not plunged since the nadir of the currency crisis of 1998, and we are well below even the most gruesome months of the 2000-2002 bear market.

I read somewhere that GM was at the lowest levels for its stock since 1954. I'm not sure where they are getting that price data, but it's not really accurate, as you can see below. In any case, if you had bought GM when Lyndon Johnson was present, you would (even assuming 0% infllation for 40 years) still be in the red. Isn't that amazing?

The Russell generated fantastic profits for me last week. Obviously, a climb back to anywhere above $700 would make this a very enticing short. Until then, I shall either do nothing or dabble with intraday (not overnight!) call positions.

The S&P 100 got close enough to its Fibonacci retracement for my satisfaction.

And the S&P 500 touched it nicely, creating what might be a firm triple bottom. If, later this year, the market resumes its downward trajectory, a break below these levels will be devastating for the bulls.

Here's a different view of the same index with similar conclusions.

The Midcap also touched its retracement nicely, and a climb to about $845 seems to be called for.

I still have plenty of puts, but they are almost all in the energy or agriculture sector. Here are a few favorites……..

I've been pretty repetitive about ICE, but I'm just crazy about this one.

I am counting on a drop in gold, and my short in ABX is my favorite one there.

EOG pierced its necklined beautfully on Thursday.

Honeywell's breakdown under its consolidation range makes for another nice short.

And another one of my "dainty little H&S" patterns is NIHD.

After such a dynamite time lately, I am putting on my Cautious & Humble hat, because after a load of profits, it's easy to screw up. I have no intention of repeating the mid-March through mid-May fiasco. I have reduced my risk substantially, and I intend to play what I see as a firm likelihood of a bounce conservatively.

Once again, I probably won't be able to do a new post until late night Monday, although I'll probably pop into the comments section now and then. Thanks for coming by, as always!

When we compare similarities between (a) this week in trading; to (b) Herve Villechaize, we attain these results:

^Short

Sweet

^{Provided comic relief to Mr. Roarke's more serious disposition}

I am quickly preparing for a long weekend in Colorado Springs, so I'll have to do a post sometime this weekend – – perhaps (yet again) late on Sunday. Congratulations to all the nimble bears out there. We made a boatload this week!