I read that a commentator on CNBC uttered the most idiotic of notions a couple of days ago: "It's not a loss until you sell." Try telling that to the holders of any of the firms below. And, believe me, this is just a very small sampling.

I have two persistent problems in my trading. One is my innate bearish nature. I'm not sure I'll ever be able to fix that. The second is an inability to accept just how far a market can travel. Strangely, this isn't confined to underestimating how high a given stock might go; it also goes the other direction. Even though I've been having a great time in this bear market, I frequently think that there is simply no way a particular stock can go any longer, and lo and behold, it keeps plunging. So, uber-bear that I might be, I don't give the potential for a security to get wiped out enough credit.

Over the past seven trading sessions, the markets have been struggling to make a bottom. The news media have been, on a daily basis, saying that This Is It, but each day It doesn't happen. We just keep grinding away in a trading range. Any meaningful pop lasts only a few hours, or a day at most.

This morning (and I'm referring to Wednesday morning, even though I'm typing this nearly at midnight), I entered the market with a large put position on the Russell 2000, and I was terribly nervous about it. The market was a little bit weak, and I sold out of the position (which had a net positive change for the day, but a net loss for the position), and I felt relieved. I was astonished to see the market continue to be weak, in spite of a mountain of good reasons for at least a short-term bounce, so I re-entered the put position, which was extremely profitable by day's end. As you can see in the DIA chart below, Wednesday created a substantial bearish engulfing pattern, but given the "grind it out" state of the past seven sessions, I wouldn't give it as much creedence as I would had it occured at a market's peak.

Looking at the $INDU's retracements, it seems that the next target (assuming yet more weakness) would be about 10,700. That seems like a really low number, but it's only about 400 points away. We've already fallen 3,000 points since last October's peak.

A lot of us here were, until recently, very frustrated with our energy shorts. Not any longer. My agriculture and energy shorts are doing dynamite, and even if the general equity market does turn higher, I'm holding on to those positions. Look at the marvelous breakout of DUG, with beautifully behavior on the trendline.

People keep talking about a lack of volatility. They're talking about the $VIX, which certainly isn't at panic levels. But for the more basic definition of volatility, we've had it in spades. Just look at the movement of the Russell 2000 over the past six weeks.

The one remaining bull market is the $CRX, and I am counting on this one to fail. This will be the Last Man Standing.

The S&P is below its retracement, but, just as it did in late May and early June, it may simply be screwing around outside the bounds of its normal trading zone without defining a new range. I've tinted the areas to show you what I mean.

The SPY, on the other hand, is still neatly within the retracements.

Even though BX has already fallen a lot, I'm thinking of adding this short position to my portfolio. Man, oh man. I won't even start talking about these clowns.

Another cool chart I tripped across tonight is PLCE.

I sold my CME puts a week ago for terrific profits, but that was hasty. This thing just keeps fallen, having lost over half its value over the course of 2008. Breathtaking!

I mentioned all the potential profits I think are stored in my energy shorts. This is the kind of chart I am talking about.

………and this one……

CSX has shaped up very nicely here.

Oh, and then there's my favorite, ICE. I just love this position. Love it to pieces.

I bought a single put on $NDX today (fairly deep in the money). Continued weakness could shave another 100 points off here.

It's officially Thursday now (wee hours of the morning), so I'm off to bed. Farewell!