Well, this is the day we've all been waiting for – – and what terrific results were offered after hours! There are an avalanche of earnings out there – – IBM, Merrill Lynch, Microsoft – – the list is very long, and the vast majority of stocks I follow were either (a) getting hit; or (b) getting destroyed. I was watching Google most carefully after the close, which had closed around 533. I was watching the bid/ask like a hawk. For a moment I saw a bid of 550, but maybe some joker thought it was funny, because a moment later the bids below $500 starting falling in. As of this writing, the bid/ask for GOOG is around $490, which is indicated below with the purple tinted area. It will be interesting to see if we "fill the gap" (marked in green tint) any time soon, given this smack-down.
So yesterday the Dow was up about 270, and today it was up over 200 again. Fantastic! I love it! It has provided me so many wonderful shorting opportunities. In fact, at this point, I have 100 positions. There are simply so many fantastic stocks out there. My energy shorts have been doing sensationally well, and I loaded up on some issues today that had been hoisted higher by the huge two-day rally in the financials.
I took some more energy profits off the table today, since I think some of the selling has finished for a little while. But don't get me wrong – – I still have a huge quantity of bearish energy positions. I just got out of simple stuff, like OIH. Here is the Dow Jones index on which DUG is based:
Mentioning the $UTIL is getting to be a daily habit, but I just love this pattern. If the neckline is broken, I think we're heading for the purple zone below.
I have amassed two very large positions on the $RUT (puts) based on the robust retracement to the retracement line you see below. This is the IWM (obviously).
I was also pleased to see the NASDAQ push its way back to almost precisely the underbelly of the fan line.
I mentioned closing my OIH puts at excellent profits. You can plainly see why here.
I mentioned 1270 being an important level of resistance for the S&P today. It got close enough to this line today for my satisfaction.
As for DUG, set aside your knowledge that this is based on energy. Just pretend the chart below is a regular company stock. Don't you think this looks terribly bullish? Look at the surge in volume and the wonderful trendline breakout. Isn't this a gorgeous graph? That's why I own a ton of this (remember, I put 100% of my IRA into this thing when it was about $29, and the gains have been handsome in the short amount of time since then).
Fashion provider to the younger set ANF has a sensational topping pattern. I have taken advantage of the retracement by buying puts.
XEC has great profits, but I'm hanging on for more.
CRK is one of the many momentum-driven "hockey stick" graphs whose puts I bought a week or so ago. Again, fantastic profits, but I am holding out for more.
I bought puts on BTU yesterday based on its failed bullish breakout. This is a favorite technique of mine.
POT was finally smoked today, as was MOS. I think there is still plenty of downside here.
I re-entered my SOHU short (which I had closed a couple of days ago) since the retracement finished. The neckline isn't as clean as I'd like, but I'm willing to take a chance.
I've got a straight equity short on HK with marvelous results. What will be hard for me – – VERY hard – – is to know the right time to exit plays like this.
It was mentioned in the comments how instructive Friday's action will be, and I agree. If we somehow end with a positive market on the day, that will be a very, very bullish sign, because these earnings are very plainly disappointing. On the other hand, if the market gets smacked down hard, maybe we're in a new era of having to face the reality of weak earnings, which will thus push down valuations farther. We'll know soon! Good luck, stay humble, and stay nimble.